Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) on 2025-10-05

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) edged up by 3.88% over the last 24 hours, with price testing key resistance levels.
• Volatility increased with a high-low range of 1.19–1.22, while volume surged above 1.7 million.
• Momentum shifted post-5:45 AM ET as RSI moved into overbought territory, signaling potential short-term correction.
• Price consolidated within Bollinger Bands after a sharp 2.5% rally in the early hours of trading.
• Divergence between price and turnover suggests caution for short-term traders ahead of major support at 1.18.

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 1.165 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.203 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 1.224 while the low dipped to 1.165. Total volume for the period amounted to 2,370,124.1, with a notional turnover of $2.85 million.

Structure & Formations

Price showed a strong bullish bias after a key breakout above the descending trendline and 1.196 psychological level. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 1.198 (08:15–08:30 ET), followed by a series of higher highs and lower lows. A doji at 1.204 (04:00–04:15 ET) suggested a temporary pause in momentum, but buyers regained control shortly after. Key resistances are now at 1.214 and 1.228, with 1.196 acting as a firm support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs trended upward, crossing near 1.183 and 1.191 respectively. The 20 MA acted as dynamic support in the early hours, while the 50 MA remained below price, indicating strong near-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at 1.199, with the 200-period SMA at 1.185. The price remains above both, suggesting the bullish trend is intact for now.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into positive territory early in the morning and stayed above the signal line, confirming rising bullish momentum. The histogram showed a broadening divergence as the rally continued. RSI moved into overbought territory above 70 at 07:45 ET but failed to break past 75, indicating potential exhaustion. A pullback to 60 could trigger short-term buying interest, while a drop below 55 may signal the start of a consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

The 20-period Bollinger Bands expanded following the morning breakout, with price reaching the upper band at 1.224. Volatility had been compressed for over 12 hours before the sharp rally. Price remained within the bands for most of the day but has shown signs of retesting the upper band. A retest of the lower band (1.181) could offer a high-probability entry for long positions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early morning hours, particularly around 08:15–08:45 ET, confirming the breakout. Turnover surged to over $200,000 in the 08:15–08:30 candle, signaling strong institutional or large-cap buyer participation. However, volume dipped after 10:00 AM ET despite price continuing higher, suggesting a divergence that may precede a pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.165–1.224 move resides at 1.194, which was tested but held. The 61.8% level at 1.205 acted as a temporary ceiling before being breached. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the 1.185–1.224 rally is at 1.207, which appears to be a near-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a potential short-term trading strategy could be to enter long at 1.198 with a stop-loss below 1.192 and a target at 1.210, using the 61.8% Fibonacci level as a risk-managed entry. This aligns with the observed bullish engulfing pattern and the breakout above key support-turned-resistance. A backtest of this setup over the past 30 days would be valuable to assess win rate and risk-reward balance before deployment.