Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) traded in a volatile 24-hour range between 1.163 and 1.249 before closing lower.
• Price declined from a 1.248 high to 1.167 low, forming bearish reversal and inside bar patterns.
• Volume surged at key breakdown levels, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence and overbought/oversold extremes.
• Bollinger Bands widened after a contraction, highlighting increased volatility.

Opening Summary and Price Action

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 1.218 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 1.249 before closing at 1.167 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The pair traded in a wide 24-hour range, with total volume reaching 4,263,660.9 and turnover amounting to 61,399.1. The price action displayed bearish exhaustion signs, including a key breakdown candle at 1.17, confirming the ongoing downward pressure.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

Price structure suggests multiple key support and resistance levels. A breakdown candle occurred at 1.17, confirming bearish momentum. A large bearish engulfing pattern was formed during the breakdown, followed by an inside bar at 1.175, indicating consolidation after the drop. The formation of a doji at 1.193 also signaled potential indecision in the market. A strong bearish bias was confirmed with the closing candle at 1.167, which sits near the lower boundary of a 1.249–1.163 range.

Support & Resistance Levels

Notable support levels include 1.170 and 1.163, while resistance remains at 1.184 and 1.193. The formation of these levels is supported by the price’s failure to reclaim above 1.193 and the sharp rejection at 1.184 in the final hours of the 24-hour window.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The RSI indicator confirmed overbought conditions at the top of the range and moved into oversold territory near the 1.17 level. The MACD showed bearish divergence with the price during the last leg down, reinforcing the potential for further downside. Bollinger Bands expanded after a prior contraction, reflecting increased volatility. The price closed near the lower band, suggesting possible exhaustion or a potential bounce, though with elevated bearish conviction.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 1.249–1.163 range highlight key levels at 1.223 (38.2%) and 1.196 (61.8%). The 61.8% level at 1.196 was a key psychological threshold and the price failed to reclaim it during the final hours.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the breakdown candle at 1.17, confirming bearish conviction. Turnover also rose in line with the move, indicating increased notional value of trades. Price and turnover aligned during the breakdown, suggesting a strong move rather than a false break. However, as the price approached 1.163, volume began to decline, hinting at possible near-term exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the breakdown candle at 1.17 as an entry trigger, with a stop above 1.184 and a target at 1.163. A trailing stop could be used after the 1.170 level is confirmed as a short-term support. The strategy would benefit from incorporating RSI and MACD divergence as additional filters. A 15-minute chart approach using 20-period moving averages could help identify early signs of the breakdown. This method leverages both volume confirmation and technical indicators to improve signal reliability.