Market Overview: AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

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• ASRUSDT surged 2.262 after a bullish breakout from a consolidation range, with momentum confirmed by rising volume and RSI near overbought levels.
• Bullish engulfing and inside patterns were evident in the 15-min chart, particularly in the early morning and afternoon ET sessions.
• Volatility expanded as the price moved between 2.211 and 2.263, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly during the breakout.
• Notable support levels identified at 2.222–2.226, and resistance at 2.248–2.256, which failed to contain the upward thrust.
• High volume on the breakout candle and increasing turnover suggest strong retail and institutional interest in the bullish move.

AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT) opened at 2.23 on October 2, 2025 (12:00 ET – 1) and traded as high as 2.263, as low as 2.211, and closed at 2.262 by 12:00 ET on October 3. Over the 24-hour period, the pair recorded a total volume of 260,214.4 and a total turnover of 594,564.4.

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a clear consolidation pattern from early morning into midday, followed by a strong bullish breakout after 09:00 ET. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed around 06:00–07:30 ET, with a hanging man at 00:00–00:15 ET indicating a prior bearish bias that was later invalidated. A doji at 04:45 ET marked a volatility contraction before the breakout. Key support levels were confirmed at 2.222–2.226, and resistance was tested and broken at 2.248–2.256.

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On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bullish, with the 20SMA crossing above the 50SMA in the morning. The MACD histogram turned positive after 06:00 ET, with a strong bullish crossover of the signal line. The RSI peaked near 72–76, suggesting overbought conditions, although it remained within reasonable bounds and did not trigger an immediate sell-off. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the breakout, confirming the move as a high-volatility event.

The 200-period daily SMA was at 2.235, indicating that the recent rally has moved the price into a short-term overbought territory. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing low to the breakout high showed 2.241 (38.2%) and 2.256 (61.8%) as key levels that were either retested or breached. Volume was highest during the morning and afternoon ET, with a clear divergence from price during the evening session, which may suggest fading momentum.

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The forward-looking outlook suggests that the ASRUSDT pair is in a short-term bullish trend, with potential for a test of 2.270–2.275 if the current momentum is sustained. However, given the overbought RSI and recent volume divergence, caution is advised. A pullback to 2.238–2.244 would likely see renewed buying interest, but a break below 2.222 could trigger further bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined assumes a momentum-based approach using a combination of MACD crossover, RSI divergence, and Bollinger Band breakout confirmation. Specifically, the model enters long when the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA, the MACD histogram is rising, and the RSI has not yet entered overbought territory (below 70). A stop-loss is placed at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level below the entry.

Given today’s data, the strategy would have triggered a long entry around 2.242–2.246 with a stop-loss at 2.222, aligning with observed support. A target of 2.258–2.263 (61.8%–76.4% RSI extension) would be consistent with today’s high. The strategy may benefit from filtering out false breakouts using volume confirmation and ensuring divergence between price and RSI to avoid premature entries.

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