Market Overview for Reserve Rights/Tether (RSRUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• Price dropped from a 24-hour high of $0.006909 to a low of $0.006369, with bearish momentum intensifying in the final 8 hours.
• RSI and MACD signal overbought/oversold divergence, with volume surging as price declines.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion, and price remains below 20/50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart.
• A key support zone between $0.006420 and $0.006369 appears to be holding as the primary short-term floor.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.618 (~$0.006575) may act as dynamic resistance if buyers re-enter.

Reserve Rights/Tether (RSRUSDT) opened at $0.006713 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00638 by the same time on 2025-10-04. The 24-hour high reached $0.006909, while the low hit $0.006369. Total volume stood at ~60.2 million tokens, with a notional turnover of ~$408,500. The pair displayed a clear bearish trend throughout the day, with increasing bear volume in the final hours.

On the 15-minute chart, RSR/USDT spent most of the session below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 2025-10-03 16:30 time frame, followed by a long bearish candle at 19:30, confirming downward pressure. The 2025-10-04 09:00 candle showed a brief pullback, but it was immediately rejected, suggesting a lack of conviction in the buying side. Key support levels are now forming at $0.006420 and $0.006369, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025-10-03 16:00–19:30 swing sits at ~$0.006575.

RSI and MACD both signaled bearish momentum from 2025-10-03 22:00 onward, with RSI dropping below 30 and MACD forming a bearish crossover. The RSI overbought condition at the session peak (~$0.006909) quickly reversed into oversold territory, pointing to a lack of follow-through buying. The Bollinger Band volatility expansion seen during the 2025-10-04 05:00–09:00 period indicates a potential consolidation or reversal phase. However, with volume surging as the price declines, sellers appear to be well-positioned for further downside.

Given the strong bearish momentum, the formation of a key support zone around $0.006420, and the failure to reclaim key moving averages, RSR/USDT could face further pressure in the short term. A break below $0.006369 could extend the decline toward $0.006300. Investors should monitor Fibonacci levels and volume behavior for signs of exhaustion or potential short-covering. As always, leverage and exposure should be carefully managed.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the 15-minute RSI falls below 30 and the price closes below the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss at the previous swing high. A long position is triggered when RSI rises above 70 and the price closes above the 50-period moving average, with a stop-loss at the previous swing low. Using this strategy on the 2025-10-03 to 2025-10-04 data would have produced a short signal on the 2025-10-03 17:00 candle and held until the close of the 2025-10-04 09:00 candle. The position would have captured a ~7% move in line with the daily trend. The strategy relies on confirming bearish momentum and key trendline breaks, aligning with the observed price behavior.