Market Overview for Renzo/USDC (REZUSDC) — 2025-10-04

• Price action for REZUSDC was volatile with a high of $0.01263 and low of $0.01170 in the last 24 hours.
• Momentum turned bearish after 18:00 ET, evidenced by RSI dipping below 40 and negative MACD.
• A key support level emerged around $0.01215, with multiple bounces and consolidation.
• Volatility expanded in the last 12 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening and price hitting the lower band.
• Notional turnover spiked during the 13:15–15:30 ET window, aligning with price recovery attempts.

The Renzo/USDC (REZUSDC) pair opened at $0.01243 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01197 by 12:00 ET on October 4. During this period, it reached a high of $0.01263 and a low of $0.01170. Total traded volume amounted to 13,555,485.6 units, while notional turnover stood at approximately $167,249 (calculated using volume × price). The 24-hour range suggests increased bearish pressure, especially in the latter half of the period.

Structure & Formations

The price of REZUSDC displayed a bearish bias with multiple breakdowns below key support levels, notably $0.01215. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 14:30 ET as price gapped down from $0.01219 to $0.01208 on high volume. A doji at 02:45 ET marked a brief pause in the decline but failed to spark a sustained recovery. The pair found temporary support at $0.01215–0.01212, but subsequent bearish continuation patterns—such as a hanging man and a spinning top—confirmed the lack of buying interest.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price after 18:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period MA on the daily chart also crossed below the 200-period MA, suggesting the start of a bearish phase on a longer timeframe. Price closed below all key moving averages, indicating a strong bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative at 18:00 ET, with the histogram diverging further as the bearish momentum accelerated. RSI, which briefly touched 40 at 22:00 ET, fell below 30 by 03:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions, though price continued to decline afterward. This suggests a lack of conviction in the downside, though bearish sentiment remained strong.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the last 12 hours, with the Bollinger Bands widening and price hitting the lower band multiple times. This indicated increasing bearish pressure and a potential overreaction in the market. The bands remained wide, signaling ongoing uncertainty and heightened sensitivity to news or market catalysts.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 13:15–15:30 ET window, coinciding with a price recovery to $0.01208. However, this was quickly followed by a large-volume sell-off, confirming bearish continuation. The notional turnover reached a peak at 13:15 ET with $1,661 in value traded, followed by a sharp drop after 15:45 ET. Price and volume diverged at several points—particularly between 06:00–09:00 ET—suggesting weakening bearish momentum despite continued price declines.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the key 15-minute swing from $0.01263 to $0.01212 highlighted a 61.8% level at $0.01233. Price tested this level twice, failing to break through and forming bearish patterns. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent high-to-low move was at $0.01229, which was also rejected with a bearish engulfing pattern.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a backtesting strategy that enters short positions at the close of bearish engulfing patterns—confirmed by a close below the 20-period MA—and exits on a 1% stop loss or a 2% target appears aligned with the recent structure of REZUSDC. The strategy would have triggered a short entry at $0.01219 on the 14:30 ET candle, with a stop at $0.01221 and a target at $0.01211. Given the subsequent price action, this short would have been successful, hitting the target at 15:15 ET. The repeated bearish continuation and weak volume on attempted bounces make this a viable approach for traders seeking to capitalize on short-term bearish momentum.