Market Overview for Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) traded in a volatile 24-hour range, with a strong move above 4.00 before retracing.
• Key resistance appears to have formed near 4.05, with support emerging at 3.95–3.96.
• Momentum diverged in the late hours of the session, suggesting caution ahead.
• Volume surged during the 4.00–4.05 breakout but failed to confirm a breakout above 4.05.
• A potential continuation or pullback is expected, depending on the next 24-hour volume and RSI response.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18, Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) opened at 3.987, reaching a high of 4.055 before closing at 3.985 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour period saw a total trading volume of 1,187,483.83, with a notional turnover of $4,737,168. The price action reflected a strong bullish push and a subsequent consolidation phase, marked by key resistance and support levels.

Structure & Formations

RENDERUSDT exhibited a distinct bullish breakout between 3:30–4:00 AM ET, reaching as high as 4.055 before retreating. A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the late morning of 2025-09-18, suggesting a potential reversal at resistance. A bearish doji near 4.002 also signaled indecision. Strong support emerged at 3.95–3.96, with the price bouncing from this level twice. The 3.95–3.96 level could hold, but a break below would likely trigger a retest of 3.85–3.87.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged near 3.98–4.00, aligning with the 4.00–4.02 consolidation zone. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic support line, supporting the price during key retracements. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits around 3.93, slightly above the 200-period MA at 3.91, indicating a modest bullish bias but not a strong trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the late hours of the session, with a bearish crossover and a diverging histogram. RSI, which surged to overbought territory during the 4.00–4.05 move, retreated sharply to neutral levels, indicating exhaustion in the bullish momentum. A rebound in RSI above 55 could signal renewed buying interest, while a break below 45 could signal further consolidation or a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 4.00–4.05 surge, with the bands widening to 0.06. The price briefly moved above the upper band before retracting into the middle band, signaling a temporary overbought condition. The narrowing of the bands in the early morning suggests a possible consolidation period. The 4.00–4.02 range aligns with the middle band, indicating potential equilibrium.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 4.00–4.05 move, peaking at over 43,000 units for the first hour. Notional turnover increased significantly during the breakout, confirming the bullish move. However, volume declined after 4:00 AM, suggesting weaker conviction in the rally. Divergence between price and volume during the consolidation suggests caution for further bullish moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 3.98–4.055 move, the 61.8% level is at 4.025, coinciding with the 15-minute upper Bollinger band. A retest of this level is likely. The 38.2% retracement is at 4.005, which acted as a minor resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from the 3.85–4.05 move is at 3.93, suggesting a possible floor if the price retraces further.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a long entry on a 15-minute RSI crossover above 55 and a bullish divergence, with a stop-loss below the 3.95–3.96 support zone. A take-profit target could be set at the 4.02–4.03 Fibonacci resistance, with a trailing stop at the 3.99–4.00 level to protect gains. Given the recent divergence in momentum and volume, this strategy would benefit from filtering trades with a strong confirmation candle above key resistance levels and a surge in volume.