Market Overview for RedStone/Tether (REDUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• RedStone/Tether (REDUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $0.4632–$0.4947, closing near the lower half at $0.4685.

• Price dropped over 7.0% after a strong intraday high near $0.4896, showing bearish exhaustion in the 15-minute chart.

• A bearish divergence in RSI and low volume during the downtrend suggest possible oversold conditions around $0.4639–$0.4660.

• Volatility expanded midday but later compressed, hinting at consolidation near key support levels.

• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.618 (~$0.4770) and 0.382 (~$0.4830) were tested multiple times during the session.

RedStone/Tether (REDUSDT) opened at $0.4778 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and peaked at $0.4947 before settling at $0.4685 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total 24-hour volume was 2,994,234.5, with a notional turnover of $1,433,190. The pair faced bearish pressure, breaking below key support levels and showing signs of potential exhaustion.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish trend dominated by a descending channel and multiple bearish engulfing patterns, especially in the late NYSE hours. A long-bodied bearish candle formed around 00:30 ET, signaling capitulation as the price fell to $0.4783. A key support level at $0.4671–$0.4695 was tested twice and held, suggesting potential consolidation or a short-term rebound. A morning doji at $0.4702–$0.4702 further hints at indecision.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart show a clear bearish crossover with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line, confirming the downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is still above the 200-period line, indicating the broader trend remains neutral-to-bullish, though a potential bearish crossover is in progress. Price closed below the 50-period daily MA at $0.4685, raising caution.

MACD & RSI

MACD for the 15-minute chart showed a bearish divergence with price, particularly during the drop from $0.4896 to $0.4685. The RSI reached oversold territory (~28) around 08:00–09:00 ET and remained below 40 for most of the session. A bullish reversal in RSI is yet to follow price action, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but with caution required.

Bollinger Bands

Price moved inside a contracting Bollinger Band in the early morning before breaking to the downside, reaching a low of $0.4639. The low volatility reading followed by a sharp drop is a textbook case of a bearish breakout. The current price of $0.4685 resides near the lower band, suggesting it may continue to consolidate or test the 20-period MA for a potential rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked sharply in the late NYSE hours, particularly at 00:30 ET, as price dropped from $0.4896 to $0.4783. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the price decline. However, volume dipped significantly after 03:00 ET, suggesting a lack of follow-through in the bearish move. The divergence between volume and price during the final leg of the decline adds a layer of caution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.4639 to $0.4947, key levels at 38.2% (~$0.4830) and 61.8% (~$0.4770) were tested and rejected. The current price is near the 78.6% retracement level (~$0.4650), which could offer support or trigger a bearish breakdown. On the daily chart, a larger retracement from $0.4639 to a prior high may provide context for a possible reversal zone in the near future.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern at the close of a 15-minute candle, provided RSI is below 30 and volume is above the 10-period average. This would have generated a buy signal at $0.4650–$0.4680, with a target of $0.4700 and a stop-loss at $0.4620. The current price action aligns with this setup, and the next 24 hours will confirm whether support holds or if a breakdown occurs. A successful test of the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.4770 could validate the pattern and signal a potential reversal.