Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT)

Summary
• Price declined from 1.15 to 1.135, testing key support and forming bearish patterns.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, with potential for a near-term rebound.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the downward move, confirming bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show tight consolidation before a sharp break lower.
• Fibonacci levels at 1.133 and 1.146 mark critical support and resistance for the next 24 hours.

At 12:00 ET on 2026-01-05, Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at 1.143 and closed at 1.135, with a high of 1.179 and low of 1.121 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 1,048,175.3 and notional turnover reached 1,173,164.7.

Structure & Formations

The price action showed a bearish breakout from a tight Bollinger Band contraction, followed by a sharp decline to 1.121. A key support level at 1.133 appeared resilient during a rebound, but failed to hold further. Several bearish engulfing and inside bar patterns were observed, particularly during the downward leg from 1.15 to 1.135. A long-legged doji near 1.138 suggests indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both below the price by the close, confirming a bearish bias. The longer-term 200-period MA on the daily chart also sat above current levels, indicating the pair remains in a medium-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dipped into oversold territory near 28, suggesting a short-term bounce could occur. The MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. However, the divergence between price and RSI may hint at a limited countertrend move before a resumption of the decline.

Bollinger Bands

A significant volatility contraction was observed around 2026-01-04 23:15 before a sharp break to the downside. The price closed near the lower band at 1.135, consistent with a continuation signal for the bearish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged during the decline from 1.15 to 1.135, particularly between 02:00 and 04:00 ET, confirming strong bearish conviction. However, the lack of follow-through buying during the rebound suggests a lack of immediate bullish participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level at 1.133 acted as a temporary support, while the 38.2% level at 1.146 could become a critical resistance should a rebound occur. Daily Fibonacci levels from the 1.15–1.121 swing suggest a potential target at 1.127 if the bearish bias continues.

The market appears to be consolidating within a well-defined range, but with bearish momentum intact. A close above 1.138 could attract short-covering buyers, but failure to hold 1.133 may signal further declines. Investors should remain cautious, as volatility remains elevated and directional bias is skewed to the downside in the near term.