Market Overview: Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) – 24-Hour Breakdown

• RAY/USDT ended 24h at 1.623, up from 1.563, amid volatile swings below a key 1.717 high.
• RSI showed oversold conditions early but failed to sustain follow-through bullish momentum.
• Volume spiked at 360k+ on the 11:30 AM ET close, suggesting increased conviction in a reversal.

24-Hour Snapshot

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at 1.563 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET - 1 and closed at 1.623 by 12:00 ET the same day, forming a volatile 24-hour candle with a high of 1.717 and a low of 1.461. Total volume amounted to 14.8 million contracts, while notional turnover reached $18.9 million, signaling high participation and momentum shifts across the day.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a strong bearish engulfing pattern around 6:45 PM and 8:00 PM ET, pushing the pair into a multi-hour decline. A bullish reversal at 8:00 AM ET (1.624 close) suggested institutional participation, followed by a strong 1.594 to 1.717 rally. A key support at 1.613–1.623 was repeatedly tested, and a potential resistance cluster formed around 1.645–1.672. A doji at 10:15 AM ET and a long lower wick at 11:30 AM ET indicated indecision and bullish conviction, respectively.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA around 9:45 AM ET, forming a short-term bullish bias. The 50EMA (0.6–0.8) remained below price action, signaling strong momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is approaching 1.650, with the 200DMA at ~1.600—price remains above both, indicating a medium-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive at 9:15 AM ET, confirming bullish momentum, though histogram strength waned after 11:00 AM. RSI hit an oversold level of 29 at 4:15 PM ET and rose to ~55 by 12:00 ET, failing to reach overbought territory. This suggests potential for further consolidation or a short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

The 15-minute BB showed a volatility expansion from 6:00 AM to 10:00 AM ET, with price reaching the upper band twice. After 10:00 AM, volatility contracted, and price settled near the middle band—suggesting exhaustion of short-term momentum. The 20-period BB on the daily chart also showed RAYUSDT hovering just above the upper band, indicating strength relative to its recent trend.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume candle occurred at 11:30 AM ET (630,000 contracts), coinciding with a 1.624 close, supporting a breakout interpretation. A divergence between declining volume and rising price emerged between 11:15 AM and 12:00 PM ET, suggesting weakening bullish conviction. Total turnover remained above average for the last 30 days, with the 11:30 AM and 2:15 PM ET candles being the most liquid.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracements on the 4:15 PM to 11:30 AM swing (1.461 to 1.624) include 1.523 (38.2%) and 1.562 (61.8%). Price found support at 1.613–1.623, aligning with the 61.8% retracement level. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the October-December decline sits near 1.672, a potential next target.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-oversold, 1-day-hold strategy on RAYUSDT has historically delivered a total return of approximately 310% and an annualized return of 30% since 2022. While the recent 1.624 close marked a technical bounce from oversold levels, historical performance suggests a cautious approach—average trade gains are modest, with a high probability of drawdowns. This strategy may offer asymmetric potential for risk-tolerant traders, but it lacks robust risk management beyond a fixed holding period. The latest candle's 1.624 close appears to align with the oversold trigger point, potentially offering an entry point for backtest replication.