Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT): 2025-10-14

• Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) dropped from 2.18 to 1.90 in overnight trading, signaling bearish momentum.
• Key support levels at 1.90–1.93 and resistance at 2.03–2.07 emerged, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming at 1.90.
• Volume surged over 100k at 1.90, confirming bearish sentiment, while RSI dipped into oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the drop, followed by a sharp expansion as volatility spiked.
• Turnover diverged from price during the rebound, indicating weakening conviction among buyers.

RAYUSDT opened at 2.065 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 2.18, then dropped to a low of 1.866 before closing at 1.933 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 2.11M, with turnover reaching $4.15M. The pair displayed sharp volatility, a key bearish reversal pattern, and diverging price-volume dynamics.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a strong bearish trend, with a key low at 1.866 triggering a bearish engulfing pattern. This pattern occurred after a consolidation phase between 1.90 and 1.95, suggesting short-term bearish bias. The 2025-10-14 low at 1.866 may now act as a pivot point. A bullish reversal could occur if price retests this level without breaking it, but for now, the structure appears bearish.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA fell below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. Daily moving averages showed the 50-period MA crossing below the 100- and 200-period lines, a “death cross” signal for longer-term traders. This reinforces the bearish narrative, with price continuing to trade below all key MAs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative mid-day, with the histogram expanding during the downward move, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory by 12:00 ET, suggesting a potential bounce. However, divergence between price and RSI during the rebound implies caution for buyers.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly between 1.93–1.96 before the sharp decline, followed by a large expansion as volatility spiked. Price closed near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. A retest of the upper band at 1.96–1.97 could provide a short-term countertrend opportunity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 100k at 1.90 and 1.866, confirming the bearish reversal. Turnover also increased during the drop but diverged during the 1.93–1.97 rebound, where volume was weaker relative to price, indicating a lack of conviction. This divergence suggests further downside may be more likely than a sustained recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 1.866–2.18 swing placed key levels at 38.2% (1.953), 61.8% (2.030), and 78.6% (2.094). Price has retested 38.2% on two occasions, but buyers have yet to hold above this level. A break below 1.90 would target the next Fibonacci level at 1.816, suggesting further downside risks.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern observed at 1.90 offers a compelling entry signal for short-term traders. A backtest could be structured by entering a short position upon confirmation of the engulfing candle and exiting on the first close below the engulfing candle’s low. This strategy could be refined by adding a stop-loss above the engulfing candle’s high or a time-based exit (e.g., close the next day). Given RAYUSDT’s volatility and volume-driven moves, this approach may offer a high-probability short-term trade, especially in a bearish market environment.