Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) on 2025-09-17

• Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) traded between $3.20 and $3.30, closing near the upper end of its 24-hour range.
• Price action suggests a consolidation phase after a sharp intraday high of $3.306.
• Volume surged during the bullish breakout attempt, but faded after 22:00 UTC.
• RSI shows overbought conditions, hinting at potential reversal risk.
• Bollinger Bands narrow at the end of the period, signaling potential volatility expansion.

The 24-hour session for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) began at $3.226 and closed at $3.247 by 12:00 ET, trading as high as $3.306 and as low as $3.200. Total volume reached 3.2 million USD, with notional turnover exceeding $10.4 million. The pair saw a sharp intraday rally from $3.24 to over $3.30, followed by a pullback that stalled near key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at the start of the breakout, signaling potential reversal from a downtrend. However, bearish pressure emerged as the session progressed, forming a bearish harami pattern around the 22:30 UTC hour. The $3.24–$3.26 range has shown strong support and resistance, with price consolidating between these levels multiple times. A strong close above $3.26 could signal further bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average currently sits at approximately $3.245 and the 50-period at $3.249, both slightly above the closing price. This suggests short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed above the 100-period MA, indicating a potential trend reversal to the bullish side, although this remains unconfirmed on the 15-minute timeframe.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into positive territory during the intraday high but has since diverged, showing a bearish crossover as of 07:30 UTC. RSI reached overbought territory (75–80) during the rally but has since fallen to neutral levels (~55), suggesting a possible consolidation before a new directional move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly during the late trading session, suggesting potential volatility expansion. Price currently resides near the lower band (~$3.21) and could either consolidate or break out in either direction. A retest of the upper band (~$3.27) could provide a key confirmation point for further upside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the $3.24–$3.306 rally, peaking at $98,327.7 in the 17:30 UTC hour. However, volume declined sharply after 22:00 UTC, indicating weakening momentum. Notional turnover closely tracked volume increases, suggesting genuine participation. A divergence between price and volume after the intraday high is a bearish signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute move from $3.24 to $3.306, the $3.27 level represents the 38.2% retracement and the $3.24 level marks the 61.8% retracement. These levels appear to be critical for the next 24-hour action. A retest of the 61.8% level may trigger a bearish continuation, while a close above the 38.2% level could signal a bullish rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for RAYUSDT might focus on using the 50-period moving average as a dynamic support/resistance level. Triggers could be set for long entries when price closes above the 50 MA and short entries when it closes below, with stops placed outside the Bollinger Band extremes. RSI and MACD could serve as confirmatory signals, ensuring that overbought/oversold conditions are respected before entering a trade. Given the recent volatility and the potential for a consolidation period, this strategy may perform best when combined with a 24-hour time frame and trailing stops during confirmed trend movements.

Looking ahead, RAYUSDT appears poised for a critical phase. A break above $3.26 could trigger a retest of the $3.27–$3.30 resistance cluster, while a pullback below $3.24 may lead to renewed bearish pressure. Investors should monitor both volume dynamics and the strength of Fibonacci retracement levels for directional confirmation. As always, volatility can be sudden and unpredictable—position sizing and stop-loss placement remain essential.