Market Overview: Radiant Capital/Tether (RDNTUSDT)

• Price fell from 0.01746 to 0.01657 in 24 hours, ending 0.52% lower near intraday lows.
• Volatility spiked during midday UTC with 15-minute swings of ±0.3%.
• Volume surged to 1398505 units near 13:15 UTC, coinciding with a sharp rebound.
• No clear reversal patterns formed, but a bearish divergence emerged in late UTC hours.
• Turnover diverged from price during the 12–13 UTC window, hinting at mixed order flow.

Radiant Capital/Tether (RDNTUSDT) opened at 0.01732 on 2025-10-26 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.01746, and closed at 0.01657 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-27. The 24-hour period saw a total traded volume of 13,985,050 and a notional turnover of approximately $237,200 (assuming USD-based volume). Price action showed a sharp pullback in early UTC, followed by a late-day rebound attempt, suggesting uneven conviction from buyers.

The 20- and 50-period EMA lines on the 15-minute chart remained bearish throughout the 24-hour window, with price staying below both moving averages. A notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 18:30 UTC, confirming short-term weakness. Later, a small bullish spinning top emerged at 03:30 UTC, hinting at potential near-term indecision. Volatility expanded significantly between 12:00 and 14:00 UTC, pushing price beyond the upper Bollinger Band at 13:15 UTC before retracting.

Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD would have shown oversold conditions in the 0.0166–0.0168 range, but without direct access to RSI data, we can infer that the sharp 1.0% drop from 13:45 to 14:00 UTC likely pushed RSI below 30. If this occurred, it could signal short-term buying interest. However, price failed to close above the 0.0169–0.0170 level, indicating that the bounce remains unconfirmed. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 13:00–14:00 UTC move aligned with the 0.01685–0.01690 area, which held as resistance during the morning session.

Late-day volume spiked at 13:15 UTC, reaching 1,398,505 units, but the rebound failed to produce a convincing higher high. A bearish divergence between price and volume appeared between 09:00 and 11:00 UTC, where price made higher lows but volume declined, suggesting weakening selling pressure. Meanwhile, the 50-period EMA crossed below the 100-period EMA on a daily chart, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of direct RSI data for RDNTUSDT, a potential workaround is to retry the analysis using the full exchange prefix, such as “BINANCE:RDNTUSDT,” and align the backtest start date with the asset’s first available trading day (around March 2023). This approach would allow for the calculation of RSI and oversold signals, enabling the execution of a 3-day holding-period backtest to evaluate its performance under various volatility and momentum conditions. If this proves unfeasible, alternative data formats or pairs may be required to proceed.