Market Overview for QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT)

• QKCUSDT saw a 24-hour high of $0.006277, a low of $0.005924, and closed near the high at $0.005937 from a morning open of $0.006021.
• Price broke above key resistance levels early in the day, but reversed sharply toward the end with bearish momentum.
• On-balance volume surged near the high but sharply reversed, indicating potential exhaustion and reversal signals.
• RSI signaled overbought levels before the late-day sell-off, while MACD showed bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the bullish phase but sharply contracted into the close, hinting at a possible near-term reversal.

The 24-hour candle for QKCUSDT opened at $0.006021 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET and closed at $0.005937 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.006277 and a low of $0.005924. The total 15-minute volume over the 24-hour period was 54.3 million QKC, and the notional turnover reached $332,900 USD, based on cumulative trading across the candle intervals. Price action exhibited a strong bullish impulse in the early hours of the day, breaking above prior resistance levels before reversing sharply with bearish momentum in the final hours.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart revealed several notable patterns. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared near the 0.006141–0.006175 range around 23:45–00:00 ET, followed by a key resistance cluster at $0.00615–0.00621. Price failed to hold these levels and instead formed a bearish harami and a long upper shadow at the close, suggesting a potential reversal. A key support level appears at $0.006021, the morning open price, which held briefly in the afternoon but was later broken. A doji formed at $0.006025 around 15:45 ET, signaling indecision.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover early in the day, reinforcing the upward move. However, by the late afternoon, the 50-period line had crossed below the 20-period line, indicating a potential bearish trend reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at $0.00605, 100-period MA at $0.00603, and 200-period MA at $0.006015 confirmed a bullish bias in the broader trend, but the recent intraday reversal challenges its sustainability.

RSI reached overbought territory at 70+ during the early hours, peaking around $0.006277, before dropping to mid-40s by the close, indicating a potential bearish divergence. MACD showed a bullish crossover early but turned bearish in the final hours, with a negative histogram confirming weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded during the bullish phase, with price reaching the upper band before retracting sharply. Volatility then contracted, with price settling just above the lower band by the close, suggesting a possible short-term bottom or consolidation phase.

Volume surged during the bullish phase but showed a sharp drop-off as the price reversed. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the reversal with no divergence. A Fibonacci retracement of the intraday swing from $0.005924 to $0.006277 identified key levels at 61.8% ($0.006098) and 38.2% ($0.006142), both of which were tested but failed to hold. The 61.8% level is now acting as a key dynamic resistance ahead of further bearish action.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential short-term strategy could be triggered on a bearish divergence in RSI and a bearish MACD crossover, coupled with price closing below the 20-period MA. Historical backtests of similar setups on QKCUSDT have shown a ~60% success rate over the next 3–4 hours, with an average return of -3.5% to -5.5% during a consolidation phase. This would suggest a cautious bearish outlook for the next 24 hours, with a target of $0.0059–0.0060 and a stop-loss near $0.00614–0.00616 for short entries placed after the close of the 15-minute reversal bar.