Market Overview: QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT) formed a bearish reversal pattern with a 12.2% drop from 0.005994 to 0.005132.
• Momentum weakened sharply as RSI dipped below 30 and MACD crossed down from positive to negative.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with a 15-minute range of 0.005901–0.005998, but closed near the session low.
• Notional turnover surged during the selloff, indicating panic-driven volume in the 21:30–22:15 ET range.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.00529 and 0.00546 now act as immediate resistance and support for the next 24 hours.

Opening and Key Price Metrics

QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT) opened at 0.005957 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.005312 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 0.005998, and the low was 0.005132, marking a bearish session. Total volume traded was 299,635,208.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,595,181 (assuming $1 = 1 unit). The pair has shown strong downside momentum and a clear breakdown in structure.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the session reveals a strong bearish trend, with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming around 21:30–22:15 ET. A significant gap down in price followed by a series of lower closes reinforced bearish sentiment. A doji formed near 0.005312 at the close, suggesting potential short-term indecision. The key support appears at 0.005132 (session low), with resistance at 0.00529 and 0.00546 (Fibonacci retracement levels).

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both ended the session below the closing price, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are likely all bearishly aligned, with the price trading well below the 200-period line, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend in the near term.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below zero during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped sharply to a reading below 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, the price continued to decline despite this, suggesting the selloff may not yet be exhausted. A rebound above 0.00546 could trigger a RSI divergence and potential short-covering rally, but this is not currently evident.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, particularly in the 21:30–22:30 ET window, as Bollinger Bands widened. Price closed near the lower band, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A retest of the lower band near 0.005132 is likely, with a possible bounce expected if buyers emerge. However, without a strong reversal pattern, a further dip could be imminent.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff in the 21:30–22:45 ET range, with notional turnover reaching $1,595,181. Price and volume aligned in the bearish direction, with no signs of divergence. This confirms a strong bearish conviction. If price stabilizes and volume declines, this may suggest short-term equilibrium. However, if volume remains elevated with no price response, it could signal a potential exhaustion phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart now act as critical price zones. The 38.2% level at 0.00529 and the 61.8% level at 0.00546 appear to be significant psychological barriers. A breakdown below 0.005132 would confirm a deeper bearish move, with the next Fibonacci level potentially near 0.00509. A failure to hold at 0.00529 could extend the correction into this zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern with confirmation of a close below the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Stops could be placed above the 50-period moving average or at the upper Bollinger Band, while targets might include the next Fibonacci level and a break of the session low. This approach would aim to capitalize on confirmed bearish momentum while limiting downside risk with tight stop-loss placement. The RSI could be used as a trailing filter for exits, with a buy signal generated if it rises above 40 while price remains above 0.00529.