Market Overview for QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT) – 2025-09-13

• • QKCUSDT rose 0.74% on the day, reaching a 24-hour high of $0.007075 before consolidating near $0.007020.
• • Momentum remained positive in the morning but weakened in the afternoon amid a sharp post-noon sell-off.
• • Volatility expanded during the early morning surge, with volume peaking at $0.007075 and a sharp drop-off after 14:00 ET.
• • Bollinger Bands signaled increasing pressure toward the upper band until midday, after which price drifted lower.
• • A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 09:15 ET and 09:30 ET, followed by a bearish reversal after 13:30 ET.

Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET on September 12, 2025, QKCUSDT opened at $0.006859 and closed at $0.007020 by 12:00 ET on September 13. The pair reached a high of $0.007075 and a low of $0.006853. The 24-hour volume totaled 13,053,694 QKC, with a notional turnover of $91,752.72.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern for QKCUSDT showed a broad uptrend in the early part of the session, followed by a bearish reversal in the late afternoon. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed between 09:15 and 09:30 ET, signaling a short-term rally. However, this was followed by a bearish inside bar formation between 13:30 and 13:45 ET, hinting at weakening bullish momentum. Key support levels emerged around $0.007000 and $0.006975, while resistance was seen at $0.007050 and $0.007075. A morning doji at 06:15 ET signaled indecision, while a strong bearish hammer at 14:00 ET confirmed downward pressure.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

Short-term 15-minute moving averages (20/50) showed QKCUSDT above both lines in the morning, indicating a bullish trend, but by late afternoon, the 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at $0.006989 and the 200-period MA at $0.006960 indicated a mildly bullish bias. The MACD crossed into positive territory in the morning but turned negative by 14:00 ET, aligning with the bearish reversal. RSI peaked at 64 in the early morning before dropping to 48 by 15:00 ET, indicating a move away from overbought conditions and into neutral territory.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The price of QKCUSDT touched the upper Bollinger Band at 09:30 and 10:15 ET, indicating a period of high volatility. The bands widened significantly during the morning rally, then narrowed in the afternoon as the price drifted lower, suggesting a reduction in volatility. The closing price at $0.007020 remained near the middle band, indicating neutral positioning. This pattern suggests that while the asset was capable of making large moves in the morning, it lacked the follow-through to sustain the rally.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the morning rally, with the highest 15-minute volume of 1,308,116 QKC recorded at 13:45 ET as the price peaked at $0.007075. Turnover also spiked at that time, reaching $9,175. However, volume declined sharply after 14:00 ET, as the price dropped from $0.007075 to $0.007020 in the next hour. This divergence between price and volume suggests a lack of conviction in the bearish move. Notably, the largest volume occurred just before the price peaked, which could signal exhaustion in the bullish momentum and a possible reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the morning rally from $0.006853 to $0.007075, the 38.2% level at $0.006967 and 61.8% level at $0.007026 aligned with key price action. The price peaked at $0.007075 and retraced to $0.007007, staying near the 61.8% level for much of the afternoon. This suggests the price is consolidating in a key retracement zone, and a break below $0.007000 would likely test the next support at $0.006975. A retest of the 61.8% level could confirm its strength as a potential support/resistance pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed morning bullish engulfing pattern followed by a bearish reversal, a backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on the breakdown of $0.007000 with a stop above the 09:30 ET high of $0.007006 and a target at the prior support of $0.006975. This setup would align with both the Fibonacci retracement and the Bollinger Band contraction seen during consolidation. The strategy would capitalize on the bearish divergence in MACD and RSI, while volume patterns also support a high-probability entry point in the afternoon. The use of 20/50 EMA crossover and 61.8% retracement level as confirmation filters could enhance the robustness of the backtest.