Market Overview: QTUM/USDT (QTUMUSDT) 24-Hour Price Analysis

• Price opened at $2.254 and closed at $2.126, declining 4.79% over 24 hours.
• A sharp bearish move broke key support levels around $2.23 and $2.17, with low volatility until 06:30 ET.
• Volume surged 14.7x above the daily average at $2.122, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory (<30), suggesting a possible bounce but not a reversal. • Bollinger Bands tightened before 04:00 ET, followed by a large bearish breakout at 06:30 ET.

Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) opened at $2.254 (12:00 ET – 1) and closed at $2.126 (12:00 ET), with a high of $2.256 and a low of $2.105. Total volume across the 24-hour 15-minute OHLCV data reached 468,717.3 units, translating to a notional turnover of $984,137.82. The price decline reflects increasing bearish pressure as lower timeframes displayed bearish engulfing and inside bars, particularly around $2.23.

Structure & Formations

A key resistance level appears to form near $2.25–2.26, as prices failed to hold above that range after 18:00 ET on September 24. A series of bearish inside bars from $2.23 to $2.17 indicated growing bearish momentum. A large bearish gap formed at $2.14–2.16 early on September 25, followed by a decisive break below $2.17. The price tested $2.172 and failed, with volume surging at $2.122. This level may now serve as a short-term floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly as early as 21:00 ET, reinforcing the downward trend. The daily 50, 100, and 200-period MAs were all aligned bearishly, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 100 and 200-period MAs on the prior day, indicating a continuation of the longer-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative early on September 25 and remained bearish throughout, with the histogram shrinking in the last hour as bearish momentum may be waning. The RSI dropped to a 7-week low (~27) by 10:30 ET, suggesting oversold conditions. A potential bounce could be in play, but a bearish close below $2.12 could negate this, keeping the pair in a downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained subdued until 06:30 ET when a large bearish candle (open: $2.144, close: $2.126) broke below the lower band, confirming a breakout. The bands had previously been in a contraction phase from 00:00 to 06:30 ET, suggesting a consolidation period. The current price is trading within the lower third of the bands, indicating weak bearish momentum and a possible reversal scenario.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked at $2.122 during the early hours of September 25, reaching a high of 169,903.9 units in a single 15-minute candle. This coincided with a sharp decline in price, suggesting a bearish exhaustion pattern. However, turnover remained moderate, with no clear divergence between price and volume. The lack of a strong volume response at $2.17 may indicate weak conviction from bears at that level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying a Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing (high: $2.256, low: $2.105), key levels include $2.18 (38.2%), $2.16 (50%), and $2.14 (61.8%). The price broke the 61.8% level on September 25, suggesting a possible test of $2.10–2.11 next. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader bearish move lies near $2.05, which is now a critical watch point.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish candle closing below the lower Bollinger Band. A stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high (e.g., $2.25), and a take-profit is set at 1.5x the risk. Given today’s setup, this strategy would have triggered a short entry around 21:00 ET with a target of $2.05 and a stop above $2.25. The strategy’s effectiveness depends on consistent volume confirmation and divergence signals.