Market Overview: QIUSDT (BENQI/Tether)

Summary
• Price drifted in a tight range with no clear directional bias during the 24-hour period.
• Volume spiked in the early evening ET before tapering off toward the close.
• A bearish divergence in RSI suggests weakening momentum despite a stable close.
• Volatility expanded slightly in the 22:45–01:00 ET window, suggesting renewed interest.
• Key resistance at 0.00472 and support at 0.00463 appear to be holding.

Opening Narrative

On 2025-11-11, QIUSDT (BENQI/Tether) opened at 0.00465 and traded between 0.00456 and 0.00481 over the 24-hour period, closing at 0.00464. Total volume amounted to 12,801,839.0, while total notional turnover reached $57,924 (approximated using average close price). The pair exhibited moderate volatility and limited directional bias, with traders closely watching key psychological levels.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure shows a series of tight-ranging bars between 0.00463 and 0.00472, indicating consolidation. A small bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.00473 (22:45 ET), hinting at short-term bearish pressure. Multiple doji appeared between 23:00–03:00 ET, suggesting indecision among market participants. Key support at 0.00463 and resistance at 0.00472 appear to act as strong price anchors.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed near 0.00467–0.00468 during the early hours, suggesting a temporary equilibrium in the market. The 50-period MA acted as a support floor during the 01:00–04:00 ET window. No clear directional bias was evident from the 50/100/200-day MA lines on the daily chart, with the price hovering slightly below the 200-day line, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish bias over longer horizons.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed no clear divergence during the 24-hour period, with the line staying within a narrow range. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 0.00463 (23:45–01:00 ET) and later rose toward the mid-50s, failing to cross into overbought territory. The RSI’s bearish divergence during the 00:00–03:00 ET window suggests weakening bullish momentum despite a stable close.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, staying near the 20-period MA in the middle band. A brief expansion occurred during the 22:45–01:00 ET window, indicating increased volatility. Price closed near the middle band, with no significant breakouts or contractions observed, suggesting the market remained in a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 22:45–01:00 ET window, reaching a peak of ~1.3 million tokens, while turnover increased to ~$6,000. However, volume and turnover declined sharply in the final 6 hours of the session, suggesting reduced market interest. The bearish engulfing pattern at 0.00473 had strong volume support, indicating conviction behind the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 0.00468–0.00472 swing saw price retrace to 0.00469 (38.2%) and 0.00466 (61.8%), indicating short-term support areas. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fib level at 0.00468 served as a minor support, which was tested and held during the 05:00–08:00 ET window. These retracement levels appear to reinforce the key resistance and support levels noted earlier.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the tight consolidation and recurring resistance at 0.00472 and support at 0.00463, a viable backtest strategy could focus on a mean-reversion approach. Traders might enter short positions on a breakout below 0.00463 with a stop just above 0.00466, targeting the next Fibonacci level at 0.00462. Alternatively, a bullish entry could be considered on a confirmed break above 0.00472 with a stop below 0.00468. This strategy would leverage the observed volatility, volume spikes, and key levels identified in the technical analysis.