Market Overview for Pyth Network/Bitcoin (PYTHBTC): October 3, 2025

• Price drifted lower over 24 hours, closing near session lows.
• Volatility remained muted with limited volume spikes.
• No strong reversal patterns formed, suggesting continuation bias.
• RSI showed oversold conditions late in the session, hinting at possible bounce.

The Pyth Network/Bitcoin (PYTHBTC) pair opened at 1.33e-06 on October 2, 2025, and closed at 1.3e-06 on October 3, 2025. The session saw a high of 1.34e-06 and a low of 1.3e-06, with a total traded volume of 327,944.3 PYTH and a notional turnover of approximately $0.428 (based on weighted average prices). The pair traded in a narrow range with limited volatility, and price action suggested a potential bearish continuation.

Key support levels emerged near 1.3e-06, with price testing this level multiple times in the latter half of the session. Resistance levels were observed near 1.33e-06 and 1.34e-06. No strong bullish reversal patterns were identified, but a small bearish engulfing pattern formed at 22:30 ET as price broke below 1.32e-06. A doji formed around 01:15 ET, indicating indecision after a brief pullback.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart hovered near 1.32e-06 and 1.33e-06, respectively. Price remained below both, indicating a bearish bias. RSI dipped below 30 late in the session, suggesting potential oversold conditions and a possible near-term bounce. MACD remained in negative territory with a declining histogram, reinforcing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a slight expansion during the price decline, with price sitting near the lower band by the end of the session.

Volume activity was generally low, with only a few spikes occurring during key price breaks (e.g., 22:30 ET, 04:30 ET). These volume surges coincided with bearish price moves, offering confirmation rather than divergence. Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 15-minute swing from 1.34e-06 to 1.3e-06 placed 38.2% at 1.329e-06 and 61.8% at 1.313e-06. Price tested the 61.8% level but failed to find support, suggesting further downward potential.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtest strategy aims to exploit the bearish momentum observed during the session by entering short positions on confirmation of price breaking below 1.32e-06 with a stop-loss above the 1.33e-06 resistance level. Exit points would be placed at 1.3e-06 or at the next Fibonacci support level of 1.29e-06. This approach aligns with the current bias observed in the MACD, RSI, and volume confirmation. A test of this strategy on historical data would help determine its viability under similar market conditions.