Market Overview for Pyth Network/Bitcoin (PYTHBTC)

• Price declined sharply from 1.25e-06 to 1.05e-06 on 21:15 ET, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volatility spiked during the selloff, with volume surging to 423,000 at the session low.
• RSI and MACD confirmed oversold conditions by 22:00 ET, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Price later consolidated around 9.8e-06–1.02e-06, with volume drying up after 04:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed post 06:00 ET, suggesting a potential breakout ahead.

Pyth Network/Bitcoin (PYTHBTC) opened at 1.24e-06 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and dropped to a low of 4.4e-07 before closing at 1e-06 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 1.25e-06, and the 24-hour volume was 2,277,381.9 with a turnover of ~0.00201 BTC-equivalent.

Structure & Formations suggest a sharp bearish move from 1.25e-06 to 1.05e-06 was driven by a large bearish engulfing pattern and a subsequent long lower shadow. Key support was identified at 9.8e-06, where the price found temporary buyers, and a minor resistance at 1.02e-06 appeared after a bullish engulfing pattern. A bearish harami on 22:30 ET signaled a possible continuation of the downward trend.

The 15-minute 20/50 SMA lines crossed bearishly during the selloff, confirming the bearish momentum, while the 50 SMA on the daily chart provided a longer-term bearish bias. MACD confirmed the bearish divergence with a strong negative histogram post 21:00 ET. RSI fell below 30 on multiple occasions during the session, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to generate a strong rebound.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early part of the session due to high volatility and later contracted from 04:00 ET onward, suggesting a consolidation period. Price action remained within the lower 1/3 of the bands until 07:00 ET, when it moved into the middle band. The recent narrowing may precede a breakout or a continuation of the downtrend.

Volume spiked during the sharp decline, with the largest volume spike at 21:30 ET when the price dropped to 6.6e-06. Notional turnover was highest during this period at ~0.42 BTC. Volume diminished post 04:00 ET, aligning with the price consolidation. A divergence between price and volume was evident as the price continued lower while volume waned, suggesting the downtrend could be nearing a near-term bottom.

Applying Fibonacci Retracements to the 1.25e-06 to 1.05e-06 swing, key levels at 1.15e-06 (38.2%) and 1.10e-06 (61.8%) acted as minor resistance during the consolidation phase. The 1.02e-06 level aligns closely with the 61.8% retracement and served as a temporary price ceiling before the next leg lower.

Backtest Hypothesis
The observed bearish engulfing pattern and RSI oversold conditions suggest a potential bounce from the 9.8e-06 support. A backtest strategy could involve a long entry on a close above 1.02e-06 with a stop-loss just below 9.8e-06 and a target at 1.05e-06. This setup leverages the recent Fibonacci levels and the narrowing Bollinger Bands to identify a potential breakout from consolidation. Given the preceding bearish momentum, the trade remains speculative and should be closely monitored for any reversal signs.