Market Overview for PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Price swung sharply lower overnight, falling to a low of $0.2884 before stabilizing near $0.2950 in early ET.
• Strong volume surges marked the selloff, with a 24-hour turnover of $26.4M and average bearish momentum in RSI and MACD.
• Bollinger Band contraction suggested low volatility prior to a sharp expansion, indicating potential breakout conditions.
• A key support level appears at $0.280–0.285, while resistance is likely near $0.294–0.296 based on Fibonacci retracement and prior candle reactions.
• Divergences in price and volume suggest cautious optimism for a short-term rebound, though downside risks remain intact.

PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) opened at $0.2977 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $0.3034 and as low as $0.2884 before closing at $0.2906 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 13,108,190.5, and the notional turnover was approximately $26.4 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action in the past 24 hours showed a distinct bearish bias, characterized by a long bearish candle on the overnight session that tested key support levels. A strong 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 19:30 ET as price fell from $0.2937 to $0.2889, suggesting a shift in control to sellers. Additionally, a doji near $0.2900 in the morning ET session may indicate indecision, with buyers beginning to re-enter the market. Key resistance appears near $0.294–0.296, while support is forming around $0.285–0.280, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the overnight drop at $0.289 aligning with minor bullish candle closes.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has been oscillating around the 20-period moving average (20SMA), with the 50SMA lagging behind, suggesting a potential retest of the 50SMA as a dynamic resistance. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA is approaching $0.290, and the 100DMA is near $0.295, indicating that the pair is consolidating between these levels. Price may test the 200DMA, which is currently around $0.297, for potential bearish confirmation if it fails to break above the 50DMA.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned negative in the early hours of the morning, with bearish divergence forming on the RSI. RSI dropped into oversold territory around 07:00 ET before rebounding slightly, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD remains bearish and has not crossed above the signal line, suggesting that momentum favors sellers unless buyers manage to push price above the 20SMA and confirm a bullish crossover.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp sell-off overnight, with price dropping below the lower Bollinger Band at one point. The band width was narrow before the move, suggesting a period of consolidation. Price has since stabilized near the middle band, and if it manages to close above the upper band in the next 24 hours, it would signal a potential reversal. Conversely, a drop below the lower band again could indicate continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

The selloff was marked by a sharp spike in volume, particularly around 19:30–20:00 ET, when the pair traded over 880,000 units. This volume coincided with a sharp drop in price, confirming bearish conviction. However, the volume has since decreased as buyers have entered the market around $0.288–0.292, suggesting potential accumulation. The notional turnover was particularly strong during the bearish phase but has since softened, indicating reduced pressure from short-term traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels show that the 50% retracement of the overnight selloff is around $0.290–0.291, aligning with the 50DMA and a cluster of recent 15-minute closes. The 61.8% level is near $0.289, coinciding with the doji formation, while the 38.2% level at $0.293 could act as near-term resistance. These levels are important for assessing potential bounce or continuation setups.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be based on the convergence of key Fibonacci retracement levels with moving averages and RSI conditions. For example, a long entry could be triggered when price breaks above the 50SMA and 20SMA, with RSI above 40 and MACD crossing above the signal line. A stop-loss could be placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This setup would aim to capture short-term bounces off the consolidation range, assuming a bearish bias remains intact. Given the recent volatility, a trailing stop may help lock in profits while allowing for some price retracement.