Market Overview for PUMPUSDC – 2025-10-04

• Price declined by 18.3% over 24 hours, with a bearish trend dominating post-ET afternoon.
• High volatility noted in the 15:00–18:00 ET range, with a sharp drop to 0.006852.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• Volume surged late in the session, aligning with price rejection near 0.0068–0.0069.
• Bollinger Bands show contraction in the early morning, indicating a potential breakout ahead.

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at 0.007302 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.006898 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 0.007537, and the low was 0.006428. Total volume reached 392.3 million, with a notional turnover of $2.8 million across the 24-hour period.

The price action was largely bearish, with a sustained decline from the early afternoon through the night. A key support level appears to be forming around 0.0068–0.0069, where the price has bounced in multiple sessions. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible in the 19:15–19:30 ET timeframe, while a morning low of 0.006428 suggests increasing bearish momentum in the last four hours of the session. A doji at 0.006854 (14:30–14:45 ET) may indicate short-term indecision.

Structure & Formations

Price has been trading in a descending channel with the upper resistance near 0.0075 and a key support forming around 0.0068. A strong bearish engulfing pattern at 19:15 ET confirmed the breakdown in momentum. The doji at 0.006854 hints at a potential short-term reversal, while the price has yet to close above 0.0070, signaling a lack of bullish conviction.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both trended lower, with the 20-period line currently around 0.0070 and the 50-period near 0.0069. This reinforces the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are likely below current levels, indicating a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has remained negative throughout the session, with the signal line crossing below the histogram to confirm bearish momentum. RSI has moved below 30 on multiple occasions, most recently at 0.006852, suggesting oversold conditions. A potential rebound from this level could bring RSI back toward neutral territory, but sustained bullish follow-through is needed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded in the late afternoon and evening hours, with the bands stretching wider as the price dropped sharply. A contraction is visible in the early morning, particularly between 00:00–02:00 ET, signaling a potential breakout. Price has been trading near the lower band for much of the session, consistent with a bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the 14:45–16:00 ET window, with the 15:00–15:15 ET candle showing the highest notional turnover of the session. Despite a sharp drop, volume increased, suggesting bearish conviction rather than a lack of interest. Price and volume appear to be aligned in the late afternoon, with lower prices coinciding with higher turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key retracement level at 38.2% (0.00698) was briefly tested in the late evening, while the 61.8% level at 0.00674 is showing signs of resistance. These levels are likely to remain key psychological barriers in the near term, with a close above 0.00698 potentially signaling a bullish recovery.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when RSI dips below 30 and price closes above a 50-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low. This would aim to capture potential rebounds from oversold levels. Given the recent behavior, this setup could be more reliable in the early morning when volatility is lower and the Bollinger Bands are contracting. However, confirmation via a bullish candlestick pattern, such as a hammer or a morning star, would increase the probability of success.