Market Overview for PUMPUSDC on 2025-09-22

• PUMPUSDC declined from $0.006951 to $0.005875 over 24 hours amid increased volatility and high-volume sell-offs.

• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $0.006915–$0.006824, suggesting a shift in sentiment toward sellers.

• RSI reached oversold territory below 30 during the drop, while volume spiked at key breakdown levels.

• Bollinger Bands showed a volatility expansion, with price closing near the lower band on the 15-minute chart.

• Turnover surged at $0.0067–$0.0064 as large selling blocks materialized, potentially signaling exhaustion or accumulation.

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at $0.006929 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET, peaking at $0.006951 before plunging to a 24-hour low of $0.005875. The pair closed at $0.005875 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET. Total volume was 1,141,511,584 USDC, and notional turnover reached $6,807,131. Price action revealed aggressive short-term bearish momentum, driven by strong sell-side volume surges and key candlestick formations.

Structure & Formations

PUMPUSDC’s price structure shows a critical breakdown level around $0.0067, with a bearish engulfing pattern confirming the shift in control to sellers. A doji formed near $0.006857, signaling indecision before the selloff. A key support level now appears at $0.005915–$0.005925, which could serve as a potential short-term floor. Resistance levels are likely to appear at $0.006645 and $0.006801, based on prior failed bounces and intraday pivots.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a death cross. The 50-period MA is now acting as dynamic resistance, currently at $0.00616. On daily charts, the 50/100/200 MA lines have not been provided, but based on the extended bearish move, a retest of the 50-day MA is likely to act as a potential floor or pivot.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram has been narrowing as price approaches the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting exhaustion. RSI has dipped into oversold territory (29–31), raising the possibility of a short-term bounce from $0.005900–$0.005920. However, without a strong volume confirmation, any rebound may be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the drop, with price closing near the lower band on the 15-minute chart, indicating heightened volatility and bearish pressure. A sustained close below $0.005900 may lead to a further pullback toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.005850. A retest of the upper band at $0.006100 would require strong bullish volume and a break above the 20-period MA to confirm a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown below $0.0067 and again at $0.0064, indicating institutional selling pressure or accumulation. Notional turnover exceeded $6.8M over 24 hours, with most activity concentrated between 2025-09-21 16:00 ET and 2025-09-22 12:00 ET. A divergence between price and volume is not evident, suggesting that the move is still being driven by conviction rather than exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.006951 to $0.005875, key retracement levels include 38.2% at $0.006420 and 61.8% at $0.006153. Price is currently near the 61.8% level at $0.006153 and may face resistance here. On a larger scale, Fibonacci retracements of the daily move suggest a potential target of $0.005850 as the next bearish level to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves identifying bearish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below the 20-period MA and a volume spike above the 50-period moving average. A stop-loss is placed above the high of the engulfing pattern, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This setup aligns with the observed action around $0.006915–$0.006824, where a breakdown was confirmed by both volume and price action. The RSI reaching oversold levels adds to the probability of a near-term bounce from current levels.