Market Overview for Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC): 2025-10-26

• PUMPUSDC rallied to a 24-hour high of $0.00481 before retreating to close at $0.004696, showing strong bullish momentum.

• Volatility spiked significantly as Bollinger Bands widened, with price moving beyond the upper band in key sessions.

• MACD turned positive mid-day with a rising histogram, while RSI reached overbought territory twice before easing slightly.

• High volume confirmed the rally, with a notional turnover surge exceeding $180M by late afternoon ET.

• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near the 12:30 ET window, followed by a strong rally on high-volume, suggesting short-term strength.

The pair PUMPUSDC opened at $0.004022 (12:00 ET – 1), touched a high of $0.00481, a low of $0.004017, and closed at $0.004696 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 595,345,665.0, with notional turnover exceeding $270.5M. The session featured sharp intraday swings and a notable rally driven by rising volume.

On the 15-minute chart, PUMPUSDC formed a strong bullish engulfing pattern around 12:30 ET, followed by a break above the upper Bollinger Band. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged during the rally, indicating a narrowing range before a breakout. The 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA (golden cross) mid-session, reinforcing the bullish bias.

MACD turned positive early in the morning and remained above the zero line for much of the session, with a diverging histogram suggesting momentum was building. RSI reached overbought territory above 70 twice—first at 14:30 ET and again at 15:30 ET—before easing slightly. This suggests potential for a near-term pullback but also indicates strong underlying buying pressure. Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the late morning and early afternoon, coinciding with the price rally. The upper band was breached multiple times, indicating heightened volatility and possible continuation of the trend.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the key intraday swing (0.004017 to 0.00481) highlighted support at 38.2% ($0.00446) and resistance at 61.8% ($0.00464). These levels were tested and held, with the price retreating slightly from the 61.8% level before finding support. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 100-period MA from below, and the 200-period MA remains a key long-term resistance. A crossover could confirm a broader bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on capturing short-term momentum in high-volatility environments by entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by volume surges and a golden cross between the 20- and 50-period moving averages. Stops are placed just below the most recent swing low, with a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This strategy appears well-suited for PUMPUSDC’s recent price behavior, particularly during the 12:30–15:30 ET window. If tested over similar historical volatility spikes, it could yield positive results, though risk management is crucial due to the asset's high liquidity and rapid directional shifts.