Market Overview for Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) as of 2025-09-26

• Price declined from $0.005361 to $0.005009 over 24 hours amid bearish momentum and high volume.
• Volatility expanded during the overnight session with a key low at $0.004978 and a rebound into mid-50s.
• On-balance volume spiked in the 19:00–22:00 ET window, suggesting increased selling pressure.
• RSI entered oversold territory near $0.005009 but failed to trigger a sustained rebound.
• Price remains below key 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish bias.

Price and Volume Summary

The Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) pair opened at $0.005320 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.005009 on 2025-09-26 at the same time, recording a high of $0.005395 and a low of $0.004848 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded amounted to 449,849,385.0 units, with a notional turnover of $2,272,683.63.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours reveals a bearish breakdown from a prior consolidation pattern. A key support level formed near $0.005055 after multiple tests, while resistance appears at $0.005195–$0.005221. Notable bearish patterns include a dark cloud cover at 19:30–20:00 ET and a potential bearish engulfing at 20:00–20:15 ET. A doji formed at 00:15 ET, signaling indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, PUMPUSDC remains below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with the 20-period line falling faster, indicating a strengthening bearish trend. The 50-period average has also dipped below the 100-period line, reinforcing the negative bias. Longer-term, the 200-period MA remains untouched due to the short-lived nature of the pair, but recent behavior suggests it may not be a viable reference point.

MACD & RSI

Momentum, as measured by the MACD, has been consistently negative for most of the day, with the MACD line dipping below the signal line and forming bearish divergences. RSI reached oversold levels around $0.005009 but failed to trigger a strong rebound, suggesting exhaustion rather than a bottoming pattern. The failure to break above 40 in the last 6 hours indicates ongoing bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the overnight session, with the price dropping near the lower band at $0.004978. However, a partial rebound brought price back toward the middle band at around $0.005055. The Bollinger contraction seen at 04:30–05:00 ET suggested a potential breakout, but price instead drifted lower, indicating a false signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 19:00–22:00 ET window, coinciding with a sharp selloff. The highest hourly volume occurred at 19:00 ET with 44,264,877.0 units traded, and turnover reached $234,081.23. Despite the bearish volume, price failed to stabilize near support levels, suggesting bearish control. Divergence occurred when price tested $0.005055 but volume was lower on the second test, indicating weakening support.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.005395 to $0.004978, key levels at 38.2% ($0.005153) and 61.8% ($0.005058) appear to have been tested but rejected. The current price of $0.005009 sits slightly below the 61.8% level, suggesting further downside risk. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels align with key support and resistance clusters near $0.005055 and $0.005195.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum and structural breakdown, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the close of the candle that breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($0.005058), with a stop-loss placed above the 38.2% level ($0.005153). A target could be set at the next major support level near $0.004950, with risk management prioritizing tight stops due to the high volatility and low liquidity observed in the data. This approach aligns with the recent divergence in volume and RSI readings, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend is more probable than a reversal.