Market Overview for PUMP.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) as of 2025-09-17

• PUMPUSDC opened at $0.008129 and closed at $0.007667, marking a 24-hour low near $0.007600.
• A bearish trend emerged with a 100-basis-point decline in the final 15-minute candle.
• Volume spiked sharply during the afternoon hours, reaching a peak of $645M at 18:45 ET.
• RSI and MACD confirmed weakening momentum, while Bollinger Bands signaled expanding volatility.
• The pair remains in a key support zone near $0.0076–$0.0078, with mixed signals on follow-through.

The PUMP.fun/USDC pair opened at $0.008129 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.007667 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, forming a distinct bearish candle. The price touched a 24-hour high of $0.008431 and a low of $0.007600, with total volume reaching $2.078B and notional turnover totaling $1.71B. The pair has shown a consistent downtrend, especially in the final 15 minutes of the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours displayed a key bearish breakdown, with a clear channel forming between the high of $0.008431 and the low of $0.007600. A key support level appears to be emerging at $0.0076–$0.0078, with the last 15-minute candle forming a bearish engulfing pattern at this level. Resistance is clustered near $0.0081–$0.0083, where several failed attempts to rally occurred. A potential reversal setup could form if the price bounces off this support and closes above $0.0081.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages confirm the bearish momentum, with the 50SMA crossing below the 20SMA to form a death cross. On the daily timeframe, the 200-period SMA is positioned above the 100-period SMA, further supporting a continuation of the downtrend. Price has not shown signs of closing above the 50DMA on the daily chart, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has crossed below the zero line and remains in negative territory, signaling sustained selling pressure. The histogram continues to contract, suggesting that the bearish momentum may be exhausting. RSI has fallen below 30 into oversold territory, but the divergence between price and RSI is weak, indicating a lack of immediate reversal signals. A sharp rally above $0.0080 with a RSI rebound above 50 may hint at short-term relief, but confirmation is required.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly throughout the session, particularly during the peak volume periods in the early evening. Price has spent much of the day near the lower Bollinger Band, especially during the late-night and early morning hours, indicating oversold conditions. A breakout above the upper band may signal a potential rebound, but this would require a sharp and sustained move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the early evening, reaching a peak of $645M at 18:45 ET, which coincided with a sharp decline in price from $0.008411 to $0.008334. This suggests liquidation pressure from short-term traders or algorithmic selling. Notional turnover also mirrored this volume spike, confirming the strength of the sell-side. Later in the night, volume dropped significantly, which could indicate reduced conviction in the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart indicate potential zones of interest at the 38.2% ($0.007910) and 61.8% ($0.007715) levels. The price currently sits near the 78.6% retracement level, suggesting that any rally from this area may struggle unless it breaks above $0.0080. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level is at $0.007775, where the price has stalled multiple times, indicating a potential pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for PUMP.fun/USDC could leverage a combination of RSI divergence and 20SMA/50SMA crossover signals on the 15-minute chart. For example, a short entry could be triggered when the 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA and RSI confirms oversold divergence (e.g., lower highs on price but higher lows on RSI), suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish trend. A stop-loss could be placed above a recent swing high, while a take-profit target could align with key Fibonacci levels near $0.0076–$0.0077. This approach may capture short-term bearish momentum with clear risk management parameters.