Market Overview for Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) on 2025-09-15

• PUMPUSDC traded in a tight consolidation before a sharp sell-off into the NY session.
• RSI and MACD both signaled bearish momentum as price broke below a key 15-min support level.
• Volatility expanded during the selloff, with intraday volume rising to 146M USDC.
• Price appears to be testing a 38.2% Fib level from the 15-minute swing high.
• A potential recovery attempt is unfolding, but bearish divergence remains a risk.

The PUMPUSDC pair opened at $0.008202 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET, peaked at $0.008986, and closed at $0.008018 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 239,906,058 USDC, with a notional turnover (volume × price) of $1,933,062. The price moved within a descending wedge pattern on the 15-min chart, punctuated by a sharp bearish break below key support at $0.00825.

Structure & Formations

A clear bearish bias emerged when the price broke down below the 15-minute support level at $0.00825, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern at the breakout. A low-volume attempt to rally followed, but a failed test of the $0.00845 level and a bearish inside bar at the $0.00810–0.00815 range signaled continued pressure. The price may test the 0.00792–0.00793 support cluster next, which has previously acted as a short-term floor.

Support & Resistance Levels

Key support levels include $0.00792 (recent low), $0.00785 (Fib 38.2%), and $0.00772 (prior consolidation area). Resistance is at $0.00811 (recent failed test), $0.00825 (broken support), and $0.00842 (15-min swing high).

Moving Averages

The 20 and 50-period 15-min EMA lines are bearishly aligned below the price, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-day averages are converging, suggesting a potential mean reversion could be in play if the price stabilizes above the 0.00795 level.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after the breakdown, with a bearish crossover in the red zone. RSI fell to 26 at the intraday low, indicating oversold conditions, but a bearish divergence developed between RSI and price as the rally failed to close higher than the prior swing. Momentum is clearly bearish, with a low probability of a sustained rebound unless a bullish reversal occurs.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the early NY session, with the bands widening from a pre-breakout contraction. The price closed near the lower Bollinger band at $0.008018, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, given the bearish RSI divergence, a retest of the band’s lower limit is likely.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute swing, the price is testing the 38.2% retracement level at $0.00793. A break below this level may target the 61.8% at $0.00774. On the daily swing, the 50% Fib level at $0.00833 is a key psychological threshold for any reversal attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 100M USDC during the selloff but has since declined, indicating waning bearish conviction. Turnover also dropped as the price stabilized near the $0.00800–0.00805 range, with no clear confirmation of a short-covering rally. Divergence between price and volume suggests the bears may be losing steam, but a bullish breakout is yet to be confirmed.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could use the 15-minute MACD crossover (12,26) as an entry trigger with a stop-loss below the previous swing low and a take-profit at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Given the bearish momentum confirmed by RSI and volume divergence, a short-bias strategy may be more effective in this environment. The wedge pattern and failed bullish test at $0.00845 also offer a clean risk-to-reward setup for a continuation trade into the lower band.