Market Overview: Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) – November 3, 2025

• Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) opened at $0.017509 on 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at $0.016327 by 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.017942 and low of $0.014768.
• Price experienced a sharp selloff in the late afternoon, dropping below key Fibonacci levels and forming a bearish engulfing pattern around $0.0173–$0.0175.
• Volatility surged during the afternoon and evening, with total trading volume reaching 1,492,242,405.
• Notional turnover expanded during the sell-off, confirming bearish sentiment amid high-volume declines.

Market Dynamics and Key Levels

Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) experienced a strong bearish bias in the 24-hour period, with a notable breakdown occurring in the late afternoon following a period of consolidation. Price moved from a high of $0.017942 to a 24-hour low of $0.014768, forming several bearish patterns including a bearish engulfing candle in the $0.0173–$0.0175 range. This suggests a shift in sentiment toward sellers. Key support levels emerged at $0.0163 (Fibonacci 38.2%), $0.0159 (Fibonacci 61.8%), and $0.0154 (psychological level), with resistance at $0.0176–$0.0178. A doji formed near $0.0178, indicating indecision among buyers.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. For the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period lines are not explicitly provided, but the 24-hour close at $0.016327 remains below the 50-period MA from earlier in the session, indicating continued bearish pressure. Momentum appears to have accelerated during the sell-off, particularly in the 3–5-hour window, where price and volume moved in unison.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 24-hour period, with the Bollinger Bands widening in the 16:00–20:00 ET window. Price moved well below the lower band near $0.014768, signaling a potential continuation of the bearish trend. A period of contraction was observed just prior to the breakdown, indicating a potential setup for a breakout—though the outcome was bearish. The current price sits near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, offering a potential short-term support area if the trend reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

The absence of reliable MACD data for PENGUUSDT complicates the development of a momentum-based backtesting strategy. Without this indicator, it is difficult to confirm the strength and timing of the bearish momentum seen in the recent sell-off. If the correct ticker or exchange were confirmed, a backtest could be structured to enter short positions on bearish crossovers in the MACD histogram combined with volume expansion. A potential rule could be to enter a short position when price closes below the 50-period MA, volume increases by 50% above average, and the RSI drops below 30, targeting the next Fibonacci support level. However, without accurate MACD data, this hypothesis remains untested.