Market Overview for Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT)

• Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) posted a 24-hour low of $0.023389 and closed at $0.024124.
• A strong bearish move unfolded after 5:00 AM ET, with price dropping 6.2% in 3.5 hours.
• Volatility expanded early, with a high-low range exceeding 500 basis points in the first hour.
• Volume spiked to 72.8M contracts at 1:45 PM ET and 67.9M contracts at 10:45 AM ET, confirming sell pressure.
• RSI moved into oversold territory below 30 for much of the session, indicating potential short-term rebound risk.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-13, Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) opened at $0.025494 and traded between $0.023389 and $0.026769 over the next 24 hours, closing at $0.024124. Total volume reached 589,986,620 contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately $14.4 million. Price displayed bearish momentum, with a late-session recovery attempt failing to breach earlier highs.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish trend channel after 17:30 ET, with key support levels identified at $0.024124 (61.8% Fibonacci of the 17:30–20:30 ET upswing) and $0.02376 (38.2% retracement of the 5:45–10:45 AM ET move). A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 20:30–20:45 ET, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. A doji candle at 5:00 AM ET marked a turning point in the session’s bearish acceleration.

MACD & RSI

The 12:00 ET–12:00 ET MACD histogram showed bearish divergence in the afternoon, with MACD lines crossing below signal lines at 17:45 ET. RSI dipped below 30 for the majority of the session, reaching 26.4 at 9:30 AM ET, suggesting oversold conditions and potential near-term mean reversion. Momentum improved slightly during the late morning and early afternoon but remained bearish overall.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply between 17:30 and 20:30 ET, with a high-low range of 491 basis points. Price traded below the 20-period lower Bollinger Band for 3.5 hours, indicating significant bearish pressure. A contraction in volatility was observed between 10:30 and 14:00 ET, suggesting potential for a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 17:30 ET (52.9M) and again at 19:30 ET (24.5M), confirming the bearish break. A divergence between price and volume occurred between 22:00 and 23:00 ET, with volume declining while prices remained under pressure, suggesting weakening conviction among sellers. Notional turnover exceeded $2.5M during the 17:30–18:15 ET window.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 20:30–23:00 ET bearish move found support at the 61.8% retracement level ($0.024124), aligning with the 12:00 ET close. The 38.2% retracement at $0.024633 saw rejection in the morning, indicating resistance. The 61.8% level now appears as a pivot point for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy using MACD bottom divergence could evaluate if a bearish reversal is in place. The divergence between the MACD histogram and price action, particularly at 17:45–19:30 ET, aligns with classic bottom divergence signals. Traders could test entry points when the histogram bottoms ahead of price and when RSI confirms oversold conditions. This strategy would aim to capture a short-term rebound or trend reversal, depending on volume confirmation and support levels.