Market Overview for Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• Price declined sharply from $0.0234 to $0.0215 before rebounding, with heavy volume during the selloff.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of $0.0234, followed by a strong bearish trend until $0.0215.
• The RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term buying pressure could develop.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with price hitting 61.8% Fibonacci support at $0.0219 before stabilizing.
• Volume spiked during the late-night downturn but dropped as price recovered, indicating mixed conviction in the bounce.

The Pudgy Penguins/Tether pair (PENGUUSDT) opened at $0.023143 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at $0.022093 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour low of $0.021455 and a high of $0.023428. Total volume for the period was 1,257,976,898.70, and notional turnover reached $27,249,692.94. The price action shows a strong bearish bias, with a large downward move early in the session followed by a modest rebound into the close.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the high of $0.0234, confirming the shift in sentiment. A significant selloff followed, with price falling to $0.0215 by early morning. This move was supported by strong volume and saw price test the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.0219, which acted as a temporary floor. A small bullish candle at $0.022093 at the close suggests minor buying pressure, though it remains under the 20-period moving average.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are trending lower, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. Price has closed below both indicators, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are converging, which may indicate a potential near-term inflection if a strong reversal develops.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 30 during the selloff, entering oversold territory and signaling potential short-term exhaustion in the bearish move. The MACD line turned negative and remained below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. However, the MACD histogram has started to contract, suggesting a potential slowdown in the downward move, which could precede a reversal or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the selloff, with price moving below the lower band at $0.0217. Price has since bounced back into the lower half of the bands, indicating a potential short-term floor. A contraction in the band width is expected as the market stabilizes, which may reduce volatility and allow for clearer trend continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early selloff, especially around the candle that closed at $0.0215. This was confirmed by a sharp drop in turnover, indicating a lack of follow-through in the bearish move. The divergence between high volume and lower turnover during the recovery phase suggests weakening bearish conviction and a potential pause in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.0219 acted as a key support, with price bouncing off it in the early morning. The 38.2% retracement level at $0.0224 is currently a potential resistance level for the short-term recovery. If the price fails to break above this level, the bearish bias may reassert itself.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves identifying a bearish engulfing pattern followed by a strong selloff confirmed by high volume and a move below key moving averages. A long entry is considered if the price rebounds above the 61.8% Fibonacci level with increasing volume. Given the price action on the 15-minute chart, including the bearish engulfing pattern and the rebound at the 61.8% level, this strategy aligns well with the recent price structure. A trailing stop could be placed beneath the most recent support, with a target set at the 38.2% retracement level. The volume behavior during the rebound also supports the hypothesis, as it shows initial conviction in the reversal.