Market Overview for Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) – 2025-09-21

• Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) traded in a tight range, with a 24-hour high of $0.035463 and a low of $0.034298, showing consolidation.
• Price closed at $0.034467 at 12:00 ET, down from the opening price of $0.035212, reflecting bearish pressure in the latter half.
• Volatility remained moderate, with a total notional turnover of $105.2M and volume of 335.7M PENGU.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening momentum, with RSI dropping into neutral to oversold territory by the final hours.
• Key support appeared at $0.0345–$0.0347, while resistance was tested around $0.0351–$0.0353.

Price and Volume Snapshot

Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) opened at $0.035212 at 12:00 ET - 1, reaching a 24-hour high of $0.035463 before closing at $0.034467 at 12:00 ET. The price action reflected bearish sentiment in the afternoon and evening hours. Total volume traded was 335.7 million PENGU, with a notional turnover of $105.2 million, indicating moderate liquidity and activity.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern displayed a series of bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow at the end of the session, suggesting rejection of higher prices and potential bearish momentum. A key support level formed at $0.0345–$0.0347, as the price consolidated in this range during the final hours.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart moved downward, aligning with the bearish trend. The price closed below both, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is likely above the 200-period MA, suggesting a mixed intermediate-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the latter half of the session, reflecting weakening bullish momentum. RSI fell below 50 to the mid-30s by the end of the day, signaling oversold conditions and possible short-term bounce potential. However, the bearish divergence between price and momentum indicators remains a cautionary signal.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within the narrowing Bollinger Bands during most of the session, indicating low volatility. However, a break below the lower band occurred in the last few hours, suggesting increased bearish pressure and potential for further downward movement in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased notably in the late evening and early morning hours, coinciding with the break below $0.0347. Notional turnover also spiked during this time, confirming the bearish move. However, volume has not yet surged to levels that would validate a major bearish breakout, leaving room for consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent high of $0.035463 and low of $0.034298, key retracement levels include 38.2% at $0.0350 and 61.8% at $0.0347. The price tested both levels during the session, with the 61.8% level acting as a key support. A break below $0.0347 could open the door to the next major support at $0.0344–$0.0345.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period moving average (death cross) and price closes below the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A profit target is set at the 38.2% retracement level. Today’s price action partially met this criteria, with the death cross and Bollinger Band break occurring in the latter half of the session. If confirmed by volume and price continuation, this could validate the strategy for short-term bearish traders, though traders should remain cautious given the moderate volume and mixed momentum.