Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) – September 22, 2025 (12:00 ET)

• NEARJPY fell sharply overnight with a 9.2% drop from 466.6 to 422.3 in 6.5 hours before consolidating.
• Price remains in a tight 15-minute Bollinger Band contraction near 426.4, suggesting low volatility.
• RSI and MACD signal oversold conditions and bearish momentum but no immediate reversal signs.
• High volume spikes during the 06:15–06:30 ET sell-off indicate significant short-term bear pressure.
• Key support levels at 420.0 and 410.0 may be critical for near-term buyers.

Opening Summary

NEARJPY opened at 459.9 on 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 467.6 before falling to a low of 410.0 and closing at 426.4 by 12:00 ET today. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 142,604.1 units, while notional turnover amounted to ¥60,295,457.8. The pair experienced a sharp 9.2% drop in under 6.5 hours, followed by modest consolidation.

1. Structure & Formations

Price structure on the 15-minute chart reveals a clear breakdown from a short-term descending triangle formation formed between 462.0 and 456.8 between 18:00 and 19:30 ET. The breakdown was confirmed with a bearish engulfing candle at 23:15 ET (467.6 to 463.6) and followed by a strong bearish continuation. The recent consolidation has formed a small ascending triangle near 426.4–429.6, with 426.2 as a possible near-term support. A long-legged doji at 09:45 ET (419.3 to 420.9) and a bullish harami at 10:15–10:30 ET suggest temporary buyer interest but insufficient to reverse the downward trend. Key support levels at 420.0 and 410.0 are likely to be next points of interest.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA has fallen below the 50-period MA, confirming a bearish crossover. The 50-period MA is currently at 428.7, and the 20-period MA is at 426.8, both declining. Daily moving averages show the 50-period MA at 438.4, while the 100-period and 200-period MAs sit at 441.3 and 447.6 respectively, reinforcing a bearish alignment. Price remains below all key MAs, indicating a strong bearish bias in the short and medium term.

3. MACD & RSI

The MACD has been in negative territory for the past 12 hours, with the MACD line at -3.2 and the signal line at -2.1. A bearish divergence appears in the MACD histogram during the 06:00–08:00 ET consolidation phase. RSI is currently at 27.9, indicating oversold territory but without a strong reversal setup. RSI failed to rise above 30 despite volume surges at 06:15–06:30 ET, suggesting bearish momentum remains intact. Traders should watch for a potential RSI bounce above 35 for a possible short-term bounce.

4. Bollinger Bands

Price has been trading within a narrow Bollinger Band range since 09:00 ET, with the bands tightening to a width of 3.3. The current price of 426.4 is sitting slightly above the 20-period SMA, suggesting a possible short-term bounce could be forming within the consolidation. A break above the upper band at 429.2 would confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below the lower band at 423.6 would signal a resumption of the bearish trend. The current contraction could lead to a volatility expansion either higher or lower in the next few hours.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 06:15–06:30 ET sell-off with a 1,139.3-unit candle, confirming the breakdown below 431.0. Notional turnover also spiked during this period to ¥4,730,000. Since then, volume has remained relatively low, indicating waning bearish conviction. A divergence appears between price and turnover after 09:00 ET, where price has fallen slightly while turnover has not surged, suggesting the sell-off may be losing steam. Traders should watch for a volume spike above 1,000 units per candle to confirm any near-term directional move.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 12-hour swing from 467.6 to 422.3, key levels include 453.7 (23.6%), 447.9 (38.2%), and 440.5 (50%). Price has recently found support at 428.2–429.6 (61.8%), suggesting this area could be a key pivot point. If the current consolidation breaks down, the next major support level to watch is 415.2 (78.6%), with 410.0 appearing as a critical psychological and Fibonacci level.

7. Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout system that enters long on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (429.6) and exits short of the 23.6% level (453.7) or on a stop loss below 423.6. Given the current consolidation and the recent volume profile, the strategy could be enhanced by including a volume filter—requiring at least 1,000 units of volume on the breakout candle to confirm conviction. RSI confirmation above 35 could add a layer of momentum validation. This approach aligns with the observed Bollinger Band contraction and potential volatility expansion, making it suitable for a directional breakout trade in the next 48 hours.