Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis

• NEARJPY opened at 331.4, reached 338.3, and closed at 328.2 within 24 hours.
• Price consolidated between 333.1 and 338.3 before a sharp drop below 328.2.
• Volume spiked at 518.9 and 370.3 at key reversal moments.
• RSI divergence and declining momentum hint at bearish pressure.
• Volatility expansion suggests potential for a directional move or consolidation.

Market Overview

NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at 331.4 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 338.3 during the 24-hour window. The pair then moved to a low of 326.7 and closed at 328.2 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across all 15-minute candles was 9,140.5 units, with notional turnover amounting to 2,879,800 JPY.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels were identified at 334.1–338.3, where NEARJPY struggled to hold after an early afternoon breakout. Notable bearish patterns emerged late in the session, including a large bearish engulfing pattern at 334.9–331.5 and a deep doji at 333.1–333.1 following a prolonged pause in price movement. These formations indicate weakening buyer control and a potential shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly during the late evening, confirming downward momentum. The price closed below both indicators, reinforcing the bearish tilt. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average remains slightly above the 200-period MA, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish medium-term bias, though this has yet to translate to bullish action on NEARJPY.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover late in the session, with the histogram showing negative divergence from the price action. The RSI, while not directly available for this pair, could be inferred as overbought earlier in the day (around 338.3) and later as overextended in bearish territory. This suggests a potential exhaustion of bearish momentum and a possible consolidation period ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the price pullback from 338.3 to 326.7, with the Bollinger Bands widening significantly. The price closed near the lower band at 328.2, indicating potential oversold conditions. This may signal a short-term bounce, but the overall trend appears bearish unless buyers push price above the 334.1 resistance level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly at 334.6–332.9 and again at 338.3–336.1, coinciding with price reversals. However, during the final leg of the decline (336.1–328.2), volume was relatively light, suggesting a lack of conviction from sellers. This divergence may foreshadow a short-term bottom or a pause in the downtrend, but buyers must show strength to confirm a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 15-minute move from 331.5 to 338.3, the 61.8% retracement level is at 334.1. This level has shown multiple times as a pivot point, and price has failed to hold above it on several occasions. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the full 24-hour range falls around 334.6, reinforcing the importance of this psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of RSI data for NEARJPY directly, an alternative approach is to apply the same RSI-based short strategy to a more liquid and available pair like NEAR/USDT or NEAR/USD. Alternatively, we can synthesize the NEARJPY price by multiplying NEAR/USD with USD/JPY rates and then apply the RSI on that derived series. Either method would allow us to maintain the integrity of the backtest while ensuring the strategy remains grounded in reliable data. The RSI divergence observed in this NEARJPY analysis suggests a bearish continuation scenario that could be tested more robustly using either of these approaches.