Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis

• • NEARJPY dropped 3.9% over 24 hours, with bearish momentum evident from a key intraday breakdown
• • Volatility increased after 00:00 ET, with a 6.5% intraday decline from 339.0 to 337.3
• • Bollinger Bands showed expansion, and price closed near the lower band at 336.1
• • RSI would have signaled oversold conditions near the 12:00 ET close

24-Hour Price Summary

NEARJPY opened at 354.5 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 356.9 before closing at 336.1 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low of 332.3 marked a significant pullback. Total traded volume amounted to 17,550.8 units, with a notional turnover of 5,669,507 JPY.

Structure & Formations

The price structure of NEARJPY over the past 24 hours formed a bearish breakdown, particularly visible in the early morning hours on 2025-10-22. A key support level at 334.3 was tested multiple times, holding as a psychological floor. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 00:45 ET, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum into the morning. A long lower shadow at 05:30 ET suggested rejection of a modest bounce, while the formation of a small doji at 05:45 ET hinted at indecision before the final leg of the decline.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, indicating bearish bias. The 50-period SMA currently sits at 339.7, while the 20-period SMA has dipped lower. MACD turned negative in the early morning hours and remained bearish throughout the day, with a bearish crossover forming after 01:00 ET. This reinforced the downward trend, especially as RSI approached the oversold threshold near 30, signaling possible exhaustion at the lower end of the move.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility increased significantly as the price dropped below the lower Bollinger Band at 336.1, closing near the band’s edge. The band width expanded from 3.1 to 4.5 over the course of the day, indicating growing uncertainty in the market. The price remained within the band’s range, suggesting the move was not extreme but rather a continuation of a bearish phase. A contraction in volatility was observed during the early hours on 2025-10-21, followed by a sharp expansion as the sell-off accelerated.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the final hours of the 24-hour window, especially between 14:00 and 15:45 ET, when the price dropped below 336.0. This volume surge confirmed the bearish price action, with a sharp increase in notional turnover during that period. Divergences were not evident, and the volume patterns aligned with the price movements, suggesting broad agreement among market participants on the downward trajectory.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from 356.9 to 332.3, the price found temporary support at the 61.8% level (339.7) and the 38.2% level (341.5). The final close at 336.1 aligns with the 50% retracement level of the morning decline. On the daily chart, the price is approaching a key 61.8% retracement level around 334.0, which may act as a short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and oversold RSI levels, an RSI-based mean-reversion strategy would likely have triggered long signals near 334.0 to 336.0. However, due to missing RSI data for NEARJPY, we recommend using the fully supported “NEARUSD” pair as a proxy. If JPY exposure is critical, we can later adjust returns using the USD/JPY rate. Standard RSI thresholds of 30 for oversold and 70 for overbought are reasonable for this pair, but confirm with your risk preferences for stop-loss and take-profit levels. Once confirmed, I can generate a full backtest from January 1, 2022, to present.

Outlook and Risk Caveat

Looking ahead, NEARJPY may test the 334.0–335.0 range for support in the next 24 hours. A break below that could target 330.0, but a rebound may find buyers near 336.0. Investors should remain cautious about potential volatility if the market reacts to broader macroeconomic events. As always, positions should be carefully managed, and stop-loss orders considered given the recent volatility.