Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen

• • •

• NEARJPY rose from 382.2 to 409.3 during the 24-hour period, ending at 388.7 with strong afternoon volatility.
• A sharp retracement after midday highs suggests short-term profit-taking and key resistance at 409.3.
• Volume increased significantly near highs but dropped off during the selloff, indicating potential divergences.
• Momentum slowed in the latter half of the day, with RSI dipping into oversold territory, suggesting possible near-term bounce.

At 12:00 ET−1 on 2025-09-14, NEARJPY opened at 398.3 and surged to a high of 409.3 before closing at 388.7 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15. The 24-hour range was 382.2 to 409.3, with total volume reaching 50,163.6 contracts and a turnover of approximately ¥9,924,987.50.

Structure & Formations

NEARJPY exhibited strong bullish impetus in the early hours of 2025-09-15, breaking above the 400.0 psychological level and forming a long white candle (395.1 → 403.2). This was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 00:45 ET (403.2 → 401.5), indicating profit-taking. Later in the session, a long black candle (403.6 → 385.4) signaled a sharp reversal, forming a key high at 409.3 and a key low at 385.4. A doji at 06:15 ET (408.7) and a lower shadow candle at 07:45 ET (395.1 → 384.0) suggest indecision and potential support levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA crossed above price during the bullish phase but fell below as the selloff took hold, confirming a shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA remains below the 200-EMA, suggesting bearish bias despite short-term strength. Price retested the 50-EMA at 393.9 at 08:15 ET, but failed to hold, confirming a potential breakdown.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative around 00:45 ET as the bullish momentum dissipated and remained below zero for the remainder of the session. RSI reached a peak of 82 near 03:15 ET and dropped to 34 at 16:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions. A potential rebound could be expected if RSI crosses back above 40.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after the 00:00 ET candle (399.9 → 400.6) and again during the early morning surge. Price spent a significant portion of the session outside the upper Bollinger Band before collapsing back inside. The 15-minute chart showed a contraction in the bands between 10:00–12:00 ET, which preceded the final selloff. Price remains within the lower half of the bands, indicating bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the early morning bullish phase (c. 396.9 → 403.2) and again during the large sell-off (403.6 → 385.4), with the largest single candle at 00:30 ET (398.1 → 400.6) carrying 1,222 contracts. A divergence is observed between volume and price: while volume remained high during the selloff, price fell precipitously. This suggests a lack of buying interest and potential continuation of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from 385.4 to 409.3, the 38.2% retracement level is at 397.4 and the 61.8% level is at 394.3. Price broke below both and settled near 388.7, suggesting the next potential target is the 78.6% level at 391.9. On the daily chart, a retracement from 382.2 to 409.3 places key support at 394.7 (38.2%) and 390.8 (61.8%), with 388.7 now approaching the 61.8% zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the bearish engulfing pattern observed at 00:45 ET, combined with a breakdown below the 50-EMA and RSI entering oversold territory. A sell entry could be triggered on a close below the 61.8% retracement level at 390.8 with a stop above the 409.3 high. The target would be the 78.6% level at 391.9 and then 385.4. This setup aligns with key technical indicators and Fibonacci levels, offering a defined risk/reward profile.