Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) – 2025-11-10 12:00 ET

Summary
• Price action shows a bearish close after reaching a high of $3.15.
• Volatility increased significantly in the early part of the day.
• RSI indicates overbought conditions at the peak, followed by a reversal.
• Bollinger Bands suggest a period of contraction followed by a breakout.
• Volume surged during the afternoon, supporting the move lower.

NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) opened at $2.878 on 2025-11-09 12:00 ET and closed at $2.827 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET, with a high of $3.15 and low of $2.792 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to approximately 51,919,916.24, with a turnover of around $135.9 million. The pair experienced a sharp price drop in the late afternoon, despite a strong morning breakout.

Structure & Formations

The price of NEARUSDT formed a notable bearish reversal pattern in the early afternoon, with a strong rejection at the $3.05–$3.15 resistance cluster. A key support level appears to have emerged at $2.85, where the price found buying interest during the late evening. A long upper shadow on the candle closed near the session low signals potential bearish exhaustion or a short-term reversal. The pattern suggests a possible continuation of bearish momentum if $2.85 is broken.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are aligned bearishly, suggesting a longer-term downtrend. The 100-day SMA appears to offer intermediate resistance if the price attempts a recovery.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the afternoon, with a negative crossover confirming the pullback. RSI entered overbought territory during the morning high but quickly moved into oversold conditions by the late afternoon, indicating a possible short-term rebound or consolidation before further bearish action.

Bollinger Bands

The morning breakout saw the price move above the upper Bollinger Band, but the subsequent pullback brought it below the 20-period moving average and into the lower band by the late afternoon. This suggests increased volatility and a bearish sentiment. The contraction in the morning was followed by a sharp expansion, typical of a breakout that failed to hold.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly in the early afternoon, confirming the bearish reversal. The highest single 15-minute volume occurred around $3.05–$3.15, indicating heavy selling pressure. Turnover also spiked during this period, further supporting the downward move. There was no significant divergence between price and volume during this session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the morning high of $3.15 and the evening low of $2.792, the price found temporary support at the 61.8% retracement level near $2.88, before falling to $2.85. The 38.2% level at $2.99 was rejected, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest for NEARUSDT over the period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10 reveals a weak signal, with a total return of -8.4% and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.04. The system used open prices for entry and held trades for a maximum of 24 hours. The results suggest that a short-term, momentum-based strategy may not be effective in this market, given the high drawdown and unprofitable average trade. The morning breakout and failed retest of $3.05–$3.15 may represent a similar pattern to those seen historically, where overbought conditions failed to sustain bullish momentum.