Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) – 2025-10-12

• NEARUSDT dropped to $2.23 before rallying by 7.6% in the final 12 hours of the 24-hour period.
• Volatility surged mid-session, with a 5.4% intra-candle drop in one 15-minute candle.
• On-balance volume and price moved in tandem, confirming strength in the final rally phase.
• RSI reached oversold territory below 30 before rebounding, signaling potential reversal.
• The last candle closed above the 20-period moving average, indicating short-term bullish momentum.

Price Action and Opening-Closing Context

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12, NEARUSDT opened at $2.404 after closing at $2.392 the previous day. Over the 24-hour window, the pair reached a high of $2.448 and a low of $2.213, indicating strong volatility. The final candle closed at $2.435, ending the session with a notable 7.6% rebound. Total trading volume for the period was 28,292,316.7 units, and notional turnover amounted to $70,927,244. The sharp decline early in the session was followed by a strong reversal, suggesting potential buyer interest at lower levels.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

The price action displayed several key patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern early on around $2.364 and a bullish harami near the closing hours at $2.324–2.331. A doji near $2.23 marked a critical moment of indecision during the sharp selloff. Key support levels were identified at $2.213, $2.266, and $2.296, with the final close above $2.325 suggesting the formation of a new near-term support level. Resistance levels at $2.367, $2.403, and $2.418 appear relevant for the next 24 hours.

Volatility and Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed multiple times, but the 20-period MA was above the 50-period MA at the end of the session, signaling a potential short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the price closed above all three major MAs (50, 100, and 200), indicating that the longer-term trend remains constructive. Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, confirming the expansion of volatility, while the price closed near the upper band in the final hours of the session, hinting at a potential continuation of the rebound.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The RSI dropped to 28.2 during the mid-session low and recovered to close at 58.9, indicating moderate momentum and a potential bottoming process. The MACD crossed zero from below and closed above it with a positive histogram, reinforcing the bullish momentum. However, with the RSI still below 60, the pair is not yet overbought, and a pullback remains a risk in the near term.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the sharp selloff, peaking at 626,838.3 units as the price dropped to $2.271. This volume matched the sharp price movement, confirming the bearish momentum. The final rally was supported by a volume spike of 2,818,371.8 units, the largest of the session, as the price rebounded to $2.435. Notional turnover followed volume closely, with no major divergences observed. This alignment suggests the market is reacting to price action with conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major swing from $2.448 (high) to $2.213 (low) shows that the price found support at 61.8% ($2.296) and 78.6% ($2.336) levels before the final rally. The 100% retracement level is $2.448, which may act as resistance if the upward trend continues. On a 15-minute intraday move from $2.23 to $2.299, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels at $2.264 and $2.283 provided temporary support during the recovery phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be built around the key support and resistance levels identified in the daily and intraday charts, using a breakout and retest approach. A long entry could be triggered when price retests a confirmed support level (e.g., $2.296) with volume above the 20-period average, followed by a target at the next immediate resistance level ($2.367). A stop-loss would be placed below the next lower Fibonacci level or key candlestick structure (e.g., the doji at $2.23). Similarly, a short entry could be triggered on a break of the upper Bollinger Band with an RSI above 60, with a target at the next major support level. This approach would test the reliability of price reactions to key levels, volume confirmation, and momentum indicators in both bullish and bearish scenarios.