Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) – 2025-10-09

• NEAR/USDT opened at $2.912, rose to a high of $3.011 before retreating to close at $2.84 on 12:00 ET.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $3.001, followed by a sharp decline after the 20:30 ET peak.
• Volatility surged mid-day as price moved from $3.001 to $2.84 in under 5 hours; total volume reached 11.1M NEAR.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions near $3.001 and oversold near $2.84; MACD turned bearish after 20:30 ET.
• Bollinger Bands constricted before the breakout at 17:30 ET, followed by a sharp divergence in price and volume.

Price and Structure Summary

NEARUSDT opened at $2.912 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET and reached a high of $3.011 before closing at $2.84 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 11.1 million NEAR, with a notional turnover of approximately $31.7 million (calculated using average price and volume). Price action was marked by a sharp bullish breakout from $2.901–$3.001, followed by a bearish reversal marked by a large bearish engulfing candle at $3.001–$2.981 and a doji near $2.99–$2.995. Key support levels formed around $2.92 and $2.84, while resistance sat at $2.93–$2.94 and $2.96–$2.98.

Support and Resistance

Key resistance levels for NEARUSDT include $2.94 (tested repeatedly during the afternoon) and $2.98–$3.00 (a strong psychological level). On the downside, support appears solid at $2.92 and is likely to hold again if price retraces. A breakdown below $2.84 could trigger a move toward $2.80–$2.78. The bearish engulfing candle near $3.001 suggests short-term bearish bias, while the doji and consolidation near $2.99 indicate indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly near $2.97–$2.98 after 20:30 ET, confirming the reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is at $2.89, the 100-day MA at $2.86, and the 200-day MA at $2.85—suggesting that a close below $2.86 would put NEAR in a bearish alignment with longer-term trends. Price is currently below both the 50- and 200-day MAs, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Momentum and Indicators

RSI peaked at overbought levels (~75) near $3.001, then dropped sharply to oversold territory (~29) as price retreated to $2.84. MACD turned negative after 20:30 ET, with a bearish crossover. Bollinger Bands experienced a contraction before the breakout at 17:30 ET and then expanded as volatility surged. These signals align with a classic bearish reversal pattern following a short-term rally.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Trading volume spiked sharply after 17:30 ET as price moved from $2.901 to $3.011, peaking at 433,261.3 NEAR in the candle that closed at $3.001. A divergence followed as volume dropped to ~90,000 NEAR per 15-minute candle as the price fell. Turnover (calculated using open and volume) also showed divergence from price, with large-volume candles not always correlating to large price moves. This suggests a mix of large and retail activity, with bearish momentum gaining strength after 20:30 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $2.901 to $3.011, the 61.8% level is at $2.955, which held as a key resistance. A further drop to the 38.2% level at $2.939 did not hold for long. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the larger move from $2.80 to $3.011 is at $2.905, which was tested on the morning of 2025-10-09. Price failed to hold this level, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when RSI crosses above 70 (overbought) and MACD turns negative after a bullish breakout. Stops can be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and targets can be set at the 38.2% and 50% levels. Given the recent price behavior, this approach aligns well with the observed bearish reversal pattern. The strategy could be refined by adding a volume filter to ensure higher conviction in the entry trigger.