Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) on 2025-09-20

• NEAR/USDT closed lower at 3.082 after a volatile 24-hour range from 3.062 to 3.283.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions during the rally but fading bullish momentum.
• Volume surged during the breakout to 3.283, confirming the move, but failed to follow through.
• Price tested key Fibonacci levels, with resistance at 3.175 and support at 3.111 showing relevance.
• Volatility expanded during the rally but has since contracted, suggesting potential for a pullback.

NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) opened at 3.146 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, surged to 3.283, touched a low of 3.062, and closed at 3.082 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 17,341,637.1 with a notional turnover of approximately $54,562,000 (based on average price). The price action reflected a sharp rally followed by a sharp pullback, indicating high volatility and mixed sentiment.

Structure & Formations

NEAR/USDT exhibited a bullish breakout above 3.175 in the late morning, forming a strong 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern as price surged from 3.175 to 3.283. This was followed by a bearish reversal into the afternoon, marked by a long upper shadow and a doji-like formation near the 3.082 close. Key support levels are identified at 3.111 and 3.08, with resistance at 3.175 and 3.241. These levels align with Fibonacci retracements from the major swing high of 3.283.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged above the price, suggesting short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period SMAs crossed below the 200-period line, signaling a potential bearish crossover. The price remains below key moving averages, indicating ongoing bearish pressure, especially in the near term.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into overbought territory during the rally to 3.283 but quickly reversed into bearish territory as the pullback accelerated. RSI reached a high of 80 before falling below 50 and hitting a low of 30, signaling strong bearish momentum. A potential oversold reading around 30 may offer short-term support, but the broader trend remains bearish unless RSI stabilizes above 50.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the breakout, pushing price to the upper band, followed by a contraction into the lower half of the bands by the close. Price action near the 3.082 level is close to the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions. A breakout above the 3.111 level may trigger a re-expansion of volatility, but for now, the bands indicate a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout to 3.283 with a 15-minute candle showing 1,438,921.8 traded NEAR tokens. This was the highest volume bar of the 24-hour window, confirming the move. However, the subsequent pullback did not see matching volume, indicating a lack of follow-through. Notional turnover increased proportionally with price, but divergence in volume during the pullback raises concerns about sustainability.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 3.283 high to the 3.062 low show 61.8% at 3.111 and 38.2% at 3.175. The price closed near 3.082, slightly below the 61.8% level, which may now act as a support zone. A rebound from this level could test the 38.2% retracement at 3.175 before potentially breaking to the next higher level. A failure to hold 3.08 could push the pair toward the 3.062 low again.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposed involves entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern followed by a short position on a bearish reversal candlestick. The hypothesis assumes that volatility will expand after a breakout but will contract on confirmation of a reversal. A stop-loss would be placed below key support levels, and take-profit targets would align with Fibonacci retracement levels. The NEAR/USDT pair has demonstrated high volatility and clear pattern-based reversals, making it a suitable candidate for this strategy. The current pullback into oversold territory may offer a low-risk setup for a short-term long trade, provided support at 3.08–3.111 holds.