Market Overview: Across Protocol/Tether (ACXUSDT) – September 25, 2025

• Price dropped 5.6% in 24 hours with bearish momentum persisting
• RSI below 30 signals oversold conditions, but volume fails to confirm a reversal
• Volatility surged mid-cycle as price fell to 0.1102 after testing key support
• Key 15-minute resistance at 0.1145–0.1155 repeatedly failed to hold
• Bollinger Bands show price near lower band, suggesting potential short-term bounce

24-Hour Snapshot

At 12:00 ET September 24, ACXUSDT opened at 0.1154, reached a high of 0.1155, a low of 0.1102, and closed at 0.1102 24 hours later. Total notional volume was 6,321,977.08 and total turnover was 6,312,231.83. The pair exhibited a consistent bearish bias across 15-minute intervals, with a sharp drop occurring after 03:30 ET as price tested and broke below the 0.111 support level.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 17:45–18:00 ET as it closed below the 0.115 opening candle. Key support levels include 0.113 (tested 3x) and 0.1102 (broken at 03:30 ET). A shooting star formed near 0.1155 during the open, suggesting rejection of higher levels. A gravity well formed between 0.113 and 0.1102, where price spent over 12 hours consolidating before breaking lower. A bearish flag pattern developed between 03:30–06:00 ET as volume spiked and price fell sharply into the 0.110–0.109 range.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, price remained below both the 20SMA (0.113) and 50SMA (0.1135), reinforcing bearish bias. A contraction in Bollinger Bands occurred between 04:00–05:00 ET before a sharp break lower into the lower band. Price now trades near the lower Bollinger band, suggesting potential for a bounce unless bearish momentum reasserts. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA appears at 0.117, and the 200DMA is around 0.121—both untested in this 24-hour period.

Momentum and Volatility

RSI reached 27 at 05:15 ET, signaling oversold conditions, but price failed to reverse. MACD turned negative and crossed under the signal line, with bearish divergence growing stronger throughout the session. Volatility spiked sharply at 03:30 ET, with a single 15-minute candle moving from 0.112 to 0.1108. The turnover-to-volume ratio dropped from 1.05 to 0.97 in the final 6 hours, suggesting fading selling pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy relies on RSI divergence and Bollinger Band squeeze events to trigger short entries. Over the last 24 hours, one such divergence occurred at 04:30 ET when RSI bottomed at 32 while price continued lower, forming a bearish divergence. A volatility squeeze also emerged between 04:00–05:00 ET before the sharp break lower. A backtest could test this signal for entry on divergence, with a stop above the 0.113 level and a target at 0.108. Given the recent behavior of ACXUSDT, this signal appears to have a moderate probability of success in the next 24 hours if bearish momentum continues.