Market Overview: Powerledger/Tether (POWRUSDT)

• Price declined 24-hour low to $0.1416 amid rising volume and falling momentum.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions with MACD bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded with widening Bollinger Bands as price drifted lower.
• 15-minute candlestick patterns show bearish continuation and breakdowns below key support.
• Notional turnover surged over $187k in the last 15-minute session of the cycle.

At 12:00 ET−1 on 2025-09-24, Powerledger/Tether (POWRUSDT) opened at $0.1509 and reached a high of $0.1512 before closing at $0.1434 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. Total volume over the period was 656,100.97 tokens, with notional turnover of approximately $93,040. The 24-hour session saw a volatile, bearish bias, with a strong breakdown below prior intraday support levels and a sharp sell-off in the overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern late in the overnight session, confirming a breakdown from the 0.1494–0.1498 support zone. This was followed by a series of bearish continuation patterns such as a high-wave top and a falling wedge. A key resistance level appeared to form around 0.1505, which failed to hold. Notable support emerged temporarily at 0.1483 and later at 0.1434, where the price consolidated in the final hours of the day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages (SMA) showed bearish divergence, with price closing below both lines in the final hours. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period, forming a bearish signal. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period SMAs appear to be converging lower, reinforcing a bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD trended lower throughout the day, with the histogram contracting and the signal line crossing below the zero line in the early morning. This indicates weakening bullish momentum and a shift into bearish territory. The RSI reached oversold territory near the 30 level at the end of the day, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, but divergence with price action raises concerns about follow-through.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the overnight hours, with Bollinger Bands widening as the price drifted lower. The price closed near the lower band at 0.1434, reinforcing the bearish bias. This expansion suggests increased market uncertainty and a potential continuation of the downward trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume picked up during the breakdown from 0.1494, with a sharp spike at 0.1445 (amounting to 113,639 tokens). Notional turnover also surged in this period, reaching a peak of $187k during the final 15-minute candle before 12:00 ET. This volume-confirmed breakdown signals conviction in the bearish move, while the lack of buying interest at key support levels reinforces the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.1509 high to the 0.1434 low show critical retracement levels at 0.1457 (23.6%), 0.1472 (38.2%), and 0.1486 (61.8%). The price briefly tested the 0.1472 level but failed to hold, indicating further downward pressure may persist before potential retracement activity can develop.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtest strategy could be triggered by a breakdown below 0.1434 confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a surge in volume. This signal may be used to enter a short position with a stop-loss above the 0.1472 level (38.2% Fibonacci) and a target at 0.1413, the 24-hour low. A trailing stop could be added as price moves lower. Given the MACD divergence and RSI oversold condition, a long-term short position may be more appropriate than a speculative long.