Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) – October 28, 2025

• Price dipped from a high of 3.73 to a low of 3.60, with a final close of 3.64 near the session low.
• RSI shows moderate momentum with no clear overbought or oversold signals in recent 15-min bars.
• Volume spiked during late-night hours but declined sharply in the final hours.
• Bollinger Bands suggest low volatility early on, expanding during price pullbacks.
• No strong reversal candlestick patterns emerged; trend continuation is likely in the near term.

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) pair opened at 3.70 on October 27 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.64 on October 28 at the same time, with a high of 3.73 and a low of 3.60. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 39,040.6, while total turnover (amount) was 1,041.77. Price action showed a bearish bias in the early part of the session followed by a modest recovery toward the close.

Over the 24-hour period, price action formed a bearish consolidation pattern after an initial 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern. Resistance levels appear at 3.70–3.73, with support forming near 3.60–3.64. A doji at 3.65 and a long lower wick in the 3.65–3.61 candle at 06:00 ET suggest indecision and potential reversal. However, no strong reversal pattern confirmed a bullish breakout above 3.65. The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bearish, suggesting a continuation of downward pressure in the near term.

MACD and RSI Indicators

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early hours, reinforcing a bearish bias. The histogram showed a shrinking bearish momentum, suggesting the trend could be losing steam. The RSI hovered between 45 and 50 for most of the session, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum with no overbought or oversold extremes. This suggests a continuation of range-bound trading unless a strong breakout occurs.

Bollinger Bands indicated a tight consolidation phase early in the session, with a gradual widening as volatility increased. Price moved toward the lower band in the early hours and found support near the 3.60–3.64 range, which could serve as a short-term floor. The upper band remained anchored near 3.70–3.73, where price has struggled to break out.

Volume and Turnover Behavior

Volume surged in the late-night hours (23:30–00:45 ET), with several large trades pushing price lower. However, volume dropped significantly after 01:00 ET, coinciding with a period of price consolidation. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, with the largest trades occurring in the early part of the session. A divergence between price and volume is evident in the final hours, suggesting weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 3.73–3.60 swing show key levels at 3.68 (38.2%) and 3.65 (61.8%). Price found temporary support near 3.65, suggesting this level could be critical for short-term buyers. On the daily chart, the 200-day moving average is likely bearish, and Fibonacci levels could help identify continuation or reversal points.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy relies on daily closing prices and a one-day holding period, capturing short-term directional bias. Key technical conditions include price momentum, volume confirmation, and support/resistance levels—similar to the observed behavior in the 24-hour dataset. The high volume during the price decline may indicate a high-probability sell signal, while the bearish engulfing and doji patterns align with potential strategy entry points. The strategy’s performance could be improved by incorporating tighter stop-loss levels near the 3.60–3.64 support range to mitigate risks during consolidation phases.