Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY)

Summary
• Price closed higher at 3.42, up from 3.34 at 12:00 ET-1.
• Volatility spiked in the early morning hours, with a sharp rally to 3.45.
• Volume surged to 120,092.6 at the final candle, confirming the upward move.

Open, High, Low, Close and Turnover

On 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 3.34 and reached a high of 3.45. The low was 3.31 and the close settled at 3.42. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 167,739.5, with total turnover amounting to 9,749 units.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern suggests a bullish continuation after a consolidation phase. A key resistance appears at 3.45, where the price briefly touched before closing. A potential support level forms at 3.31, marked by a long lower wick at the final candle. A morning breakout candle at 08:45 ET-1 shows a strong bullish reversal and could signal a trend continuation if confirmed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages appear to have crossed in favor of the bulls, supporting the recent rally. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains below the 200-period MA, indicating a bearish bias in the broader context. However, the recent price action may be testing the 50-day line as a potential support/resistance pivot.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero early in the morning, confirming bullish momentum. RSI reached 70 at 08:45 ET-1, suggesting overbought conditions. However, price did not retrace significantly, indicating strong buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility widened significantly around 08:45 ET-1 as the price broke out above the upper Bollinger band, which had been constricting the price for several hours. The current price is sitting near the upper band, suggesting high volatility and continued bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically in the final 15-minute candle, confirming the upward move. However, there was a divergence in the earlier part of the day where price rose on minimal volume. The large turnover in the last candle suggests strong institutional or algorithmic buying.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 06:15 to 08:45 ET-1 rally, price retraced 78.6% before closing near the 100% extension. This suggests the rally could still find support at the 61.8% retracement level around 3.39. On the daily chart, the recent low at 3.31 represents a potential 38.2% retracement of the prior bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the “RSI Overbought (> 70) + 3-Day Hold” strategy from 1 Jan 2022 to 11 Nov 2025 shows a total return of -20.5%, with an annualized return of -7.3%. The maximum drawdown was 32%, and the average trade returned -0.89%, with a Sharpe ratio of -0.31. This suggests that the strategy may not be effective for POLYXTRY due to significant drawdowns and poor risk-adjusted returns. Consider refining the approach by adding trend confirmation or using dynamic risk management tools.