Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY)

• Price fell from a high of 5.2 to a 24-hour low of 4.90, closing near the session low.
• Volatility expanded in the first half, then flattened as price consolidated.
• Volume spiked during the downward move but faded at the end of the day.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, but no immediate reversal signs.
• Bollinger Bands show price closing near the lower band, indicating bearish pressure.

Daily Summary

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira pair (POLYXTRY) opened at 5.09 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at 4.99 at 12:00 ET the following day, reaching a high of 5.2 and a low of 4.90. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 141,748.6 units, and notional turnover amounted to 710,135.9 TRY. Price action revealed a bearish trend, with sellers dominating in the second half of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period showed a sharp bearish breakdown after an initial bullish rally. A key resistance level at 5.17 was tested but failed to hold, leading to a pullback and eventual breakdown below 5.12. Several small doji candles formed near this level, signaling indecision. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at the 15-minute level, confirming the shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. Support levels emerged around 5.05 and 4.99, where buyers attempted to defend the pair but were unable to push price higher.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 20-period MA to confirm a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs are all aligned in a bearish trend, with price closing below all three. This suggests that short- and long-term momentum is in favor of the bears.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The RSI on the 15-minute chart has fallen into oversold territory, reaching levels below 30 in the final hours of the session, which may suggest a potential bounce or consolidation. However, the MACD remains bearish, with the histogram contracting and the signal line crossing below the zero level, indicating continued downward momentum. Price remains near the lower Bollinger Band, with volatility beginning to expand again, hinting at a possible follow-through in the short term.

Volume and Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the key breakdown from 5.17 to 5.12, with a spike of 5,855.3 units and a turnover of 29,837.9 TRY. However, volume dried up after the breakdown, especially around 4.99, where a large bearish candle formed with only 11,699.3 units traded. This divergence between price and volume suggests a weakening bearish trend, though the bearish move has been strong enough to maintain control. Turnover has remained high throughout the session, indicating active participation from traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 5.2 high to the 4.90 low show the price has reached the 61.8% level at 4.99, which acts as a key support area. A breakdown below 4.90 would target the 78.6% level at 4.85. On the 15-minute chart, the price is near the 38.2% retracement level within smaller swings, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering short positions when the price breaks below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and confirming the move with bearish engulfing or doji patterns. A stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high, and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the current alignment of technical indicators—particularly the bearish crossover and MACD divergence—this strategy has a high probability of success in the near term. The oversold RSI could offer a potential countertrend opportunity, but trend-following short bias remains the more robust approach at this juncture.