Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) – 24-Hour Summary

• Price surged 2.96% over 24 hours, closing at 5.03 TL after hitting a high of 5.15 TL.
• Volatility spiked in late 10/02 ET with a 15-minute range of 4.99–5.09 TL.
• Bollinger Bands show price retested the upper band multiple times, suggesting overbought conditions.
• Volume increased significantly between 19:30 and 20:30 ET but dropped off in the final hours.
• RSI reached overbought levels (>70) twice, failing to confirm a strong bull case.

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) pair opened at 4.99 TL at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 5.15 TL by 16:00 ET, closing at 5.03 TL. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 28,866.75 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 145,499.70 TL. The price action showed a strong upward bias early on but faded into consolidation and a pullback in the final hours of the report.

Key support and resistance levels emerged during the session. A notable resistance appeared around 5.13 TL, where price reversed twice. A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 18:00 and 18:30 ET, confirming the continuation of a short-term uptrend. Later, a bearish inside bar was observed between 20:30 and 21:00 ET, signaling a potential reversal. No clear doji appeared, but the price’s repeated retests of the upper Bollinger Band indicate overbought conditions.

MACD showed a bullish crossover in late 10/02, with the histogram expanding for about four hours, but the signal line began to flatten by early 10/03. RSI hit overbought territory twice, at 73 and 71, but failed to stay above 70 for confirmation. Bollinger Bands showed a noticeable expansion during the bullish phase, with prices hovering near the upper band. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both above the 15-minute close, reinforcing a short-term bullish trend.

Volume and turnover saw a sharp increase between 18:00 and 19:30 ET, with volume spiking at 19:30 ET (1,782.2 units). However, a divergence between rising price and declining volume occurred after 21:00 ET, suggesting weakening momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels at 61.8% (5.13 TL) and 38.2% (5.06 TL) acted as critical psychological thresholds, with the price failing to break above 61.8% during the session. The 50-period and 20-period moving averages appear to be converging, hinting at possible consolidation ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering long positions when a bullish engulfing pattern occurs near a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 38.2% or 61.8%), and exiting when the RSI closes below 65 or a bearish reversal pattern emerges. This approach aligns with the observed price behavior of POLYXTRY on 10/02–10/03, where a bullish engulfing pattern at 18:00 ET coincided with a 38.2% retracement level. A backtest using historical data would need to evaluate the win rate, average return per trade, and maximum drawdown under varying volatility conditions. Based on the recent price behavior, the hypothesis appears valid for short-term trend-following in high-volatility environments but may require additional risk management if used in overbought scenarios like the ones observed late on 10/02.