Market Overview: Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) – 24-Hour Candlestick Breakdown

• POLYXTRY edged higher, closing at 5.73 TRY after a 24-hour range of 5.48–5.74 TRY.
• Momentum strengthened midday with a surge past key resistance at 5.70 TRY.
• Low volume early but explosive buying pressure emerged post 20:00 ET, confirming bullish bias.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting rising volatility amid strong follow-through demand.
• RSI climbed into overbought territory, suggesting potential pullback unless buying persists.

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 5.53 TRY on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.73 TRY by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The pair reached a high of 5.74 TRY and a low of 5.48 TRY during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 177,227.4 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 981,354 TRY (calculated as price × volume across all candles).

The price action displayed a clear bullish bias from 20:00 ET onward, with a decisive break above the 5.70 TRY psychological level. This breakout was confirmed by strong volume and follow-through buying pressure, particularly in the 15-minute candle that closed at 5.73 TRY on 2025-09-18 at 23:45 ET. The structure shows a strong ascending formation, with the 5.51–5.52 TRY zone acting as a key support that held during a morning pullback.

Structure & Formations

The chart revealed multiple key levels and candlestick signals. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 16:00 ET as price moved from 5.53 to 5.51 TRY, followed by a bullish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET, which opened at 5.52 TRY and closed at 5.61 TRY—marking a turning point. A morning doji at 21:30 ET (5.59 TRY) suggested indecision before the bullish breakout. Key resistance was at 5.70 TRY, and it was decisively broken by late evening, with 5.73 TRY becoming the new immediate resistance. The 5.51–5.52 TRY zone remains a critical support level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20-period (5.61 TRY) and 50-period (5.63 TRY) moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average was at 5.60 TRY, while the 100- and 200-period averages were at 5.55 TRY and 5.52 TRY, respectively, all below the current price. This suggests Polymesh is trading well above its key medium-term trend indicators.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line midday and remained in positive territory, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI moved into overbought territory (75–80), indicating a potential short-term correction unless buying pressure continues. The divergence between strong price action and overbought RSI suggests caution for near-term traders. However, the overall momentum remains robust and supportive of higher prices.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded throughout the day, especially after 20:00 ET, with price frequently sitting near or above the upper band. This indicates strong follow-through buying and a move out of a consolidation phase. The bands were tight early in the day, suggesting a contraction in volatility before the breakout. As of the latest close, price is within the upper third of the bands, which supports continuation bias in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was initially subdued in the early morning, but a sharp increase started at 18:15 ET with a volume spike of 12,056.5 units and continued through the evening. The largest single 15-minute volume spike occurred at 22:15 ET, where 6,857.0 units traded hands at 5.68 TRY. Notional turnover also spiked, with the 23:45 ET candle contributing 3,522.0 units at 5.73 TRY. Price and turnover aligned positively in the latter part of the session, confirming the strength of the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the morning low (5.48 TRY) and midday high (5.68 TRY) show the 5.70 TRY level as the 61.8% retracement and the 5.73 TRY level near the 78.6% extension. This aligns with the price's recent behavior, particularly the 22:00 ET surge to 5.73 TRY, suggesting that this level could act as a temporary cap before the next leg up or consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

For traders seeking to capitalize on such bullish momentum and breakout scenarios, a potential backtest hypothesis could involve entering long positions on a close above key resistance levels (e.g., 5.70 TRY) with a stop-loss placed below the most recent support (5.51 TRY). A profit target could be set at the next Fibonacci extension level (5.78 TRY), with a trailing stop to lock in gains. This approach would leverage the strength of the move and the confirmation from volume and RSI, while managing risk through defined stops and targets. Given the current setup, this strategy could be tested over the next few sessions with a focus on maintaining position discipline and adjusting stops as price moves favorably.