Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) - 2025-11-02

• Price opened at $3.51 and closed at $3.48 after a volatile 24-hour session with a high of $3.52 and low of $3.39.
• Momentum indicators showed mixed signals with RSI briefly entering oversold territory and a late afternoon divergence.
• A sharp selloff in late trading saw a 15-minute candle drop from $3.48 to $3.39, raising support concerns.
• Volume spiked at key turning points, with the largest turnover occurring at $3.39, suggesting exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the final hours, highlighting increased volatility and indecision.

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at $3.51 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.48 on the following day. The pair reached a high of $3.52 and a low of $3.39 during the 24-hour period. The total trading volume was 75,334.0 units, with a notional turnover of $258,242.12. The market exhibited signs of exhaustion at key support levels and intermittent bullish attempts.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a bearish engulfing pattern forming around $3.51, followed by a sharp bearish reversal at $3.48. A key support level appears to be forming at $3.39, with a potential resistance cluster between $3.48 and $3.52. A doji near $3.50 early in the session suggested indecision among traders before the price broke lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly around $3.50, signaling a shift in momentum. The 50-period MA is currently below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, indicating bearish alignment across timeframes. The price is trading below all key moving averages, reinforcing the downward bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory for most of the session, with a bearish crossover occurring near $3.51 and confirming the bearish momentum. The RSI briefly entered oversold territory near $3.39 but failed to generate a convincing reversal, indicating potential for further downside. A divergence between the RSI and price in the final hour signaled caution.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the final hours of the session, indicating rising volatility. The price closed near the lower band at $3.39, suggesting that traders are testing the level for sustainability. A sustained close above $3.48 could bring the mid-band back into play, but a breakdown below $3.39 could trigger a further decline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at key turning points, especially during the selloff from $3.48 to $3.39, where it accounted for over 75% of total turnover. The divergence between volume and price during the $3.39 print indicates distribution or exhaustion. The overall volume pattern supports a bearish continuation scenario.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $3.52 to $3.39, the 61.8% retracement sits at $3.45 and has shown resistance in the last two attempts to rally. A break below the 38.2% level at $3.48 could bring the 61.8% level into focus as the next key support. These levels may act as psychological barriers in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the mixed signals from momentum indicators and the recent volatility, a potential backtest strategy could involve using RSI to detect oversold conditions and assess the strength of potential bounces. A strategy based on RSI readings below 30 as entry signals, with stops placed at key Fibonacci levels, could be evaluated. However, the failure of RSI to generate a convincing bounce at $3.39 suggests the need for caution in applying a purely oversold-based strategy without confirmation from price action.