Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) on 2025-10-11

• Price declined sharply to 1.97, then rebounded to close near 3.69 amid high volatility.
• Momentum turned bearish in the mid-session but showed a recovery in the final hours.
• Volume spiked during the price drop and dipped during consolidation, showing divergence.
• Bollinger Bands reflected a wide expansion, signaling heightened uncertainty and potential reversal.
• RSI crossed into oversold territory, hinting at a short-term bottoming process.

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira pair (POLYXTRY) opened at 4.61 on October 10 at 16:00 ET and dropped sharply to as low as 1.97 within 15 minutes. The 24-hour session closed at 3.69 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 4.67 and a low of 1.97. Total volume for the period was 156,079.9, and total notional turnover (in Turkish Lira) amounted to approximately 557,729.3 (based on average price of ~3.57).

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong bearish impulse in the early session, with a sharp decline from 4.67 to 1.97—characterized by a long lower shadow and low volume in the final legs. This was followed by a recovery phase with multiple bullish hammers and a morning star pattern forming around 3.6–3.65. A key support level appears at 3.58–3.62, and resistance is now emerging at 3.68–3.70. A deep engulfing candle marked the low at 1.97, followed by a long bullish body as buying picked up.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has closed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages in recent hours, suggesting short-term strength. On a daily basis, the 50-day moving average appears to have been a key support that was briefly violated, but the 200-day line remains intact. The crossover of the 20- and 50-period lines (on the 15-min chart) remains neutral but shows no clear divergence at this time.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped into oversold territory near 25 during the price collapse but rebounded to 48 at the close, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. MACD turned from bearish to bullish in the last 4 hours, with the histogram showing positive divergence. This aligns with the price rebound and suggests that buying pressure is increasing, though momentum remains unconfirmed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked dramatically during the sell-off, pushing the price to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. However, in the recovery phase, the price has moved back toward the upper half of the band. A tightening of the bands occurred after 06:00 ET, indicating a potential breakout or reversal. The current positioning within the bands suggests a balanced market, with the upper band at ~3.70–3.72 now acting as resistance.

Volume & Turnover
Volume surged during the price collapse, peaking at 30,547.3 (at 21:15 ET), but dropped off sharply as the price stabilized. This divergence may indicate a loss of bearish conviction and a potential bottoming process. In the recovery phase, volume remained moderate, confirming cautious optimism. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking during the sell-off before declining.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 4.67 (high) to 1.97 (low), the 61.8% retracement level sits at ~3.59–3.61, which closely aligns with the current support cluster. This level has already shown multiple bounces, reinforcing its significance. A break above 3.68–3.70 could trigger a retest of the 78.6% level at ~4.17, though this remains distant.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering a long position on a breakout above the 3.68–3.70 resistance level, with a stop-loss placed below the 3.58 support cluster. This is supported by the recent morning star pattern and the RSI’s recovery from oversold territory. The strategy aims to capture the initial leg of a potential bullish reversal, relying on confirmation via both price action and momentum indicators. A trailing stop could be activated after a 5% move in the favorable direction.