Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) on 2025-10-10

• POLYXTRY opened at 4.71 and closed at 4.82 with a 24-hour high of 4.86 and low of 4.59.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 4.82–4.83 and encountered bearish rejection at 4.70–4.63.
• Volatility spiked in the final 3 hours, with large-volume moves suggesting possible short-term direction shifts.
• RSI dipped to oversold levels near 4.63, but volume failed to confirm a strong reversal signal.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before a sharp 4.59–4.86 rebound, hinting at a possible breakout scenario.

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 4.71 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09 and closed at 4.82 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. The pair reached a high of 4.86 and a low of 4.59 over the past 24 hours. Total volume traded was 94,868.5 units, with notional turnover of approximately 435,720.3 TRL.

Structure & Formations

POLYXTRY displayed a bullish engulfing candle at 4.82–4.83, suggesting a reversal from a downtrend. A large bearish candle at 4.70–4.63, however, indicated strong selling pressure. A double bottom structure is forming around 4.63–4.70, with potential to bounce higher if volume picks up on retests. A doji near 4.75 also signaled indecision, with buyers stepping in but failing to push the price significantly higher. Key support levels appear at 4.70 and 4.63, while resistance is forming at 4.82 and 4.86.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA rose above the 50-EMA (golden cross) just before the 4.82–4.83 bullish engulfing candle, suggesting a potential short-term uptrend. However, the 50-EMA failed to confirm the move beyond 4.83, hinting at potential consolidation. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) show a flattening trend, with no clear long-term direction as yet. POLYXTRY is currently trading above its 50- and 100-day MA, indicating some short-term strength.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed above the signal line near 4.82, reinforcing the short-term bullish momentum. However, this was quickly followed by a bearish divergence, with price rising to 4.86 but MACD declining, suggesting potential exhaustion. RSI dropped into oversold territory at 30 near 4.63 but failed to produce a strong follow-through. The RSI remains in neutral territory around 50–55, showing a lack of strong directional bias. The MACD histogram has been narrowing in recent sessions, pointing to decreasing momentum.

Bollinger Bands

POLYXTRY spent most of the session within the Bollinger Bands, with a brief contraction near 4.75 before a sharp breakout to 4.86. The expansion of the bands in the final 3 hours indicates increased volatility and the potential for a continuation of the rally. Currently, the price is trading near the upper band, suggesting overbought conditions. A retest of the lower band at 4.70–4.63 would provide a key opportunity for confirmation or rejection of the bullish scenario.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 4.63–4.86 reversal, with the largest single bar being the 4.59–4.66 candle, which traded 9,867.9 units. However, this was followed by lower volume on the 4.66–4.86 rally, indicating a lack of follow-through. Turnover spiked to over 435,000 TRL during the final 3 hours, with the largest turnover occurring between 4.63 and 4.74. Price and turnover moved in the same direction during the 4.63–4.86 move, suggesting some level of confirmation for the breakout. However, divergence in the final 4.83–4.86 bar suggests caution.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 4.63–4.86 move aligns with key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% (4.74) and 61.8% (4.82). The price held above 4.74 and tested 4.82 twice, both times with mixed volume confirmation. A break above 4.83 (100% extension) would signal a strong continuation of the bullish trend, while a close below 4.74 would increase bearish probabilities. On the daily chart, the 2025-10-09 low of 4.59 and the recent high of 4.86 form a key swing structure, with retracement levels at 4.72 and 4.80.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy involves entering long positions after a bullish engulfing candle that follows a golden cross (20-EMA above 50-EMA) and a RSI move above 50. The strategy aims to capture the initial bounce off key support levels and exits on a close below the 50-EMA or RSI drop below 50. In this case, the 4.82–4.83 bullish engulfing candle and golden cross would have triggered a long entry, with a stop loss below 4.74. The strategy could have captured the 4.82–4.86 move but would have been tested by the bearish divergence and low volume on the follow-through. Further testing across multiple assets and timeframes would be needed to validate the approach.