Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) - 2025-09-10

• Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) closed at 5.57, up from 5.34, with a 24-hour high of 5.61 and a low of 5.32.
• Strong volume spikes were seen during early morning hours, suggesting key price inflection points and momentum shifts.
• RSI and MACD signals showed late-day overbought conditions, but price corrected sharply by end of day.
• Bollinger Bands showed mild expansion, indicating increased short-term volatility.
• A bullish continuation pattern is in place, but a key resistance at 5.6 may be a critical next threshold.

The 24-hour period for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) began at 5.34 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at 5.57 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 5.61 and a low of 5.32. The total volume over the period was 199,903.5, and the notional turnover reached approximately 919,445 TRY. The price moved through a series of key resistance levels, with a notable break above 5.51 early in the morning and a final close above 5.55.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a clear ascending pattern with multiple consolidations around key psychological and Fibonacci levels. A bullish flag pattern emerged after a sharp rally from 5.34 to 5.51. A bearish correction was seen after a strong bullish move around 09:15 and 10:00, which formed a small bearish harami pattern but failed to retest key support below 5.52. A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 5.34–5.61 swing sits at 5.49, which was tested and held during the day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bullish, with the 20-period above the 50-period for most of the session. This indicated a strong short-term upward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are still in a downtrend but appear to be converging as price gains momentum toward 5.6.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in positive territory for most of the day, with a strong bullish crossover at 02:30 and a final bearish divergence noted at 10:45. The RSI peaked at overbought levels (above 70) around 02:30 and 04:15 but corrected into neutral territory by the close. This suggests a possible exhaustion of the upward move and a potential reversal at or near 5.6.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 02:30, reflecting increased volatility during the sharp rally. The price remained above the 20-period moving average and closed near the upper band, indicating a strong bullish momentum. A retest of the lower band could provide a short-term opportunity for consolidation and a potential breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 02:30 (26,394.5 units) and 03:15 (4,584.3 units), supporting the price move above 5.55 and 5.61. Turnover also spiked in these periods, showing strong liquidity and investor interest. The volume-to-price alignment suggests a strong bullish sentiment during the key upmoves, with no major divergence observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart showed a 38.2% retracement at 5.45 and a 61.8% at 5.49, both of which were tested and held. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement of the recent downtrend sits at 5.56, which was briefly tested and broken during the final hours. These levels could act as support/resistance in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price behavior and the alignment of momentum indicators, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a bullish entry at the first retest of 5.55–5.56 (with a stop below 5.53), targeting 5.6–5.65 based on Fibonacci extensions and Bollinger Band projections. The RSI and MACD divergence at 10:45 suggest a potential reversal or consolidation phase, offering an exit or tight stop opportunity for short-term traders. This hypothesis aligns well with the observed volume and price action, and could serve as a model for intraday traders seeking to capitalize on short-term volatility.