Market Overview for POLUSDT – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis (2025-10-11)

• POL/Tether traded in a 24-hour range of $0.1152–$0.2315 with bearish momentum from 19:30 ET onward.
• A sharp drop from $0.2295 to $0.2007 was followed by a consolidation phase in the second half of the day.
• Volatility expanded midday, with volume surging over 23 million contracts during the selloff.
• Price found a temporary floor near $0.138–$0.139 and recovered into a neutral consolidation phase after 02:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD signal potential exhaustion in the current move, with no clear breakout in sight.

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at $0.2295 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.1931 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.2315 and a low of $0.1152. The pair experienced a sharp drop from $0.2295 to $0.2007, followed by a consolidation phase. Total trading volume reached 238.27 million contracts, with turnover reaching $72.3 million over 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period revealed a strong bearish trend, with a significant drop from $0.2295 to $0.2007 followed by a consolidation phase. Key support levels formed around $0.189–$0.190 and $0.138–$0.139, with a potential short-term resistance at $0.1945. Several long lower shadows and bearish engulfing patterns were observed during the decline, indicating strong selling pressure. A morning doji at $0.1931–$0.1938 signaled indecision in the market after the selloff.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower during the sharp decline, reflecting bearish momentum. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a death cross pattern. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is bearish, with the 100-period and 200-period MA also trending lower, confirming a downtrend in the broader timeframe.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a negative divergence during the decline, with bearish momentum intensifying as price fell. The RSI dropped below 30 in the midday hours, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to bounce, suggesting that the bearish trend could continue. Price and RSI did not show strong confirmation of a bottom, with RSI staying within neutral to bearish territory for most of the session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the midday selloff, with the Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the large price drop. Price traded near the lower band for much of the afternoon, indicating oversold conditions. In the latter half of the session, volatility decreased, with price consolidating near the middle band, suggesting a potential period of consolidation ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the midday selloff, with over 23.8 million contracts traded during the $0.2295 to $0.2007 decline. This was followed by a decrease in volume during the consolidation phase, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move. Turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking during the selloff before stabilizing. Price and volume appear to be aligned during the decline, but no strong divergence is evident at the moment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart showed key retracements at 38.2% ($0.2183), 50% ($0.2152), and 61.8% ($0.2117) during the initial decline. The daily chart’s retracement levels at 38.2% ($0.2152), 50% ($0.2117), and 61.8% ($0.2083) suggest potential areas of support and resistance. Price did not find strong support at these levels and continued lower, suggesting bearish continuation is more likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when the price breaks below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8%) on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by bearish divergence in the RSI and a drop in price below the 20-period moving average. A stop-loss could be placed slightly above the most recent swing high, with a take-profit target at the next Fibonacci level or a key support level. This approach aligns with the observed bearish trend and technical indicators discussed above, particularly the death cross on the 15-minute MA and the bearish momentum seen in the MACD and RSI.